# Will the NVIDIA H100 compute per hour price be above $2 at 4 PM ET on Aug 07

> Above $2.00 leads at 97%, runner-up 89% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/h100ws
Updated: 2026-07-09T20:20:50.557Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above $2.00 at 97%
- Runner-up: Above $2.25 at 89%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $297

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.00 | 97¢ | +26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26jul17-2.000 |
| Above $2.25 | 89¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26jul17-2.250 |
| Above $2.25 | 82¢ | +30pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26jul24-2.250 |
| Above $2.00 | 82¢ | −24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26aug07-2.000 |
| Above $2.25 | 64¢ | +8pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26aug07-2.250 |
| Above $2.50 | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26jul17-2.500 |
| Above $2.75 | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26jul17-2.750 |
| Above $3.00 | 21¢ | −1pp | $95 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26jul24-3.000 |
| Above $2.75 | 19¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26aug07-2.750 |
| Above $3.50 | 18¢ | +2pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26aug07-3.500 |
| Above $3.00 | 13¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26jul17-3.000 |
| Above $2.50 | 11¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26aug07-2.500 |
| Above $3.75 | 7¢ | +8pp | $102 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26jul31-3.750 |
| Above $3.25 | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26jul17-3.250 |
| Above $4.00 | 3¢ | — | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26aug07-4.000 |
| Above $3.50 | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h100-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh100ws-26jul17-3.500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $2.00 | Above $2.25 | Above $2.25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | 31 | 43 | 41 |
| 2026-06-30 | 46 | 58 | 42 |
| 2026-07-01 | — | 69 | 65 |
| 2026-07-02 | 21 | 21 | 27 |
| 2026-07-03 | 53 | 29 | 57 |
| 2026-07-06 | 85 | 62 | — |
| 2026-07-09 | — | 72 | — |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-02 · Above $2.25 −48pp 69→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-02 · Above $2.25 −38pp 65→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-03 · Above $2.00 +32pp 21→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-03 · Above $2.25 +30pp 27→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-06 · Above $2.00 +26pp 59→85¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question asks whether NVIDIA H100 cloud compute will cost more than $2 per hour on August 7, 2026. The 92% probability reflects strong market confidence that prices will remain above this threshold. GPU compute pricing has historically been sticky, with prices typically declining gradually rather than sharply. The main factors that could shift this probability are changes in cloud provider pricing strategies, shifts in H100 supply relative to demand, and competitive pressures from newer GPU architectures. The July dates in related contracts suggest traders are tracking early signals of price movements, with the outcome becoming clearer as August approaches and providers finalize their quarterly pricing.

### Key factors

- H100 rental rates have remained relatively stable within the $2-3.50/hour range based on recent cloud provider offerings
- Supply constraints or demand spikes could pressure prices upward, while new GPU releases (like H200 or competitors) could create downward pricing pressure
- Cloud providers typically adjust pricing in discrete steps rather than continuously, making intermediate thresholds predictive of August outcomes
- The 33¢ price on the $2.25 threshold (56 days out) versus 92¢ on the $2.00 threshold suggests substantial confidence in prices staying above $2
- Historical precedent shows legacy GPU pricing rarely collapses below established baselines within short timeframes, supporting the high probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/h100ws
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=h100ws
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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