# Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $0.99 by Dec 31

> Above $0.99 leads at 97%, runner-up 96% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/h200max
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.652Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $0.99 at 97%
- Runner-up: Above $1.29 at 96%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $685

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $0.99 | 97¢ | +32pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-099-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-0.990 |
| Above $1.29 | 96¢ | — | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-129-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-1.290 |
| Above $1.59 | 90¢ | +27pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-159-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-1.590 |
| Above $1.89 | 75¢ | +26pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-189-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-1.890 |
| Above $2.49 | 74¢ | +19pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-249-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-2.490 |
| Above $2.19 | 73¢ | +18pp | $55 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-219-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-2.190 |
| Above $2.79 | 71¢ | — | $57 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-279-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-2.790 |
| Above $3.09 | 64¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-309-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-3.090 |
| Above $3.39 | 60¢ | +27pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-339-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-3.390 |
| Above $4.89 | 50¢ | +13pp | $89 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-489-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-4.890 |
| Above $3.69 | 50¢ | — | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-369-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-3.690 |
| Above $4.29 | 49¢ | +22pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-429-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-4.290 |
| Above $4.59 | 49¢ | +21pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-459-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-4.590 |
| Above $3.99 | 49¢ | +16pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-399-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-3.990 |
| Above $5.49 | 43¢ | +7pp | $75 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-549-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-5.490 |
| Above $5.19 | 42¢ | +17pp | $57 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-519-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-5.190 |
| Above $6.09 | 31¢ | −14pp | $51 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-609-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-6.090 |
| Above $6.39 | 31¢ | — | $45 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-639-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-6.390 |
| Above $5.79 | 31¢ | −2pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-579-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-5.790 |
| Above $6.69 | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-above-669-kalshi-kxh200max-26dec31-6.690 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $0.99 | Above $1.29 | Above $1.59 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 65 | 57 | 63 |
| 2026-05-28 | 97 | — | 90 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Above $0.99 +32pp 65→97¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $1.59 +27pp 63→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $3.39 +27pp 33→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $1.89 +26pp 49→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Above $4.29 +22pp 25→47¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects an estimated 97% probability that NVIDIA's H200 GPU will cost more than $0.99 per compute hour by year-end 2026. The high probability suggests traders expect H200 pricing to remain well above this threshold, with secondary markets pricing much higher price points ($5-6+ per hour) at 31-43% odds. The core drivers appear to be current H200 supply constraints and enterprise demand, which would need to shift dramatically for prices to fall below $0.99. The key uncertainty centers on whether expanded GPU supply from competing vendors or macroeconomic demand destruction could force significant price compression within the next seven months. Any major announcements regarding new competitive offerings, significant cloud provider pricing changes, or shifts in enterprise AI spending could move these probabilities.

### Key factors

- Current H200 market pricing and published cloud provider rates relative to the $0.99 threshold
- Supply trajectory for H200 units and competitive GPU availability through December 2026
- Enterprise AI demand levels and willingness to pay for premium compute resources
- Price competition from alternative GPU vendors and their market share gains
- Historical precedent for GPU pricing trends during equivalent market conditions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/h200max
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=h200max

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.