# Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's H200 be above $5.00 in May 2027

> Above $2.50 leads at 97%, runner-up 95% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/h200ms
Updated: 2026-06-19T09:20:17.759Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $2.50 at 97%
- Runner-up: Above $1.50 at 95%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.50 | 97¢ | — | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-26jun-2.500 |
| Above $1.50 | 95¢ | +32pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-26aug-1.500 |
| Above $3.50 | 88¢ | — | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-26jun-3.500 |
| Above $1.50 | 87¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-26oct-1.500 |
| Above $1.50 | 82¢ | +32pp | $863 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-26dec-1.500 |
| Above $1.50 | 81¢ | +26pp | $734 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-27jan-1.500 |
| Above $1.50 | 77¢ | +16pp | $635 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-27mar-1.500 |
| Above $2.50 | 66¢ | +17pp | $230 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-26dec-2.500 |
| Above $4.00 | 47¢ | +10pp | $597 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-27jan-4.000 |
| Above $4.00 | 44¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-26nov-4.000 |
| Above $5.00 | 36¢ | +7pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-27feb-5.000 |
| Above $5.50 | 30¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-27feb-5.500 |
| Above $6.50 | 29¢ | +15pp | $670 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-27mar-6.500 |
| Above $6.00 | 28¢ | +9pp | $641 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-27jan-6.000 |
| Above $6.50 | 27¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-27feb-6.500 |
| Above $5.50 | 27¢ | +1pp | $304 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-26nov-5.500 |
| Above $6.50 | 26¢ | +6pp | $590 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-27jan-6.500 |
| Above $6.50 | 18¢ | +5pp | $313 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-26oct-6.500 |
| Above $4.00 | 16¢ | −6pp | $92 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-26jun-4.000 |
| Above $6.50 | 11¢ | −6pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-monthly-average-compute-price-of-nvidias-kalshi-kxh200ms-26aug-6.500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $2.50 | Above $1.50 | Above $3.50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 58 | 63 | 67 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 95 | — |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Above $1.50 +32pp 63→95¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $1.50 +32pp 50→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $1.50 +26pp 55→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $2.50 +17pp 49→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $1.50 +16pp 61→77¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 96% probability that NVIDIA's H200 chip will trade at an average monthly compute price above $5.00 in May 2027. The high confidence reflects current pricing trends and existing demand patterns, though it assumes relatively stable market conditions over the next 11 months. Prices could move lower if GPU oversupply emerges, new competing chips significantly undercut H200 pricing, or cryptocurrency mining demand softens. Conversely, prices could remain elevated if enterprise AI adoption accelerates faster than supply can accommodate. The May 2027 resolution depends on actual trading data from that month, making near-term pricing momentum and supply-chain announcements key drivers of market sentiment.

### Key factors

- Current H200 spot pricing and historical monthly average volatility will establish a baseline for extrapolating to May 2027
- Announced production capacity expansions by NVIDIA or its foundry partners could increase supply and pressure prices downward
- Competitive launches of alternative high-compute chips (AMD MI series, Intel, others) may fragment demand and erode H200 pricing power
- Enterprise and AI datacenter spending patterns through late 2026 and early 2027 will determine whether demand sustains current price levels
- Cryptocurrency mining resurgence or collapse would act as a secondary demand shock with material price impact

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/h200ms
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=h200ms
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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