# Will the NVIDIA H200 compute per hour price be above $3 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03

> Above $2.50 leads at 85%, runner-up 81% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/h200ws
Updated: 2026-06-19T09:20:17.897Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-17

## Headline

- Leader: Above $2.50 at 85%
- Runner-up: Above $2.50 at 81%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.50 | 85¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul03-2.500 |
| Above $2.50 | 81¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul10-2.500 |
| Above $2.50 | 77¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul17-2.500 |
| Above $3.00 | 67¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul03-3.000 |
| Above $3.00 | 63¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul10-3.000 |
| Above $3.00 | 61¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul17-3.000 |
| Above $3.50 | 44¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul17-3.500 |
| Above $3.50 | 44¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul10-3.500 |
| Above $4.00 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul17-4.000 |
| Above $4.00 | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul10-4.000 |
| Above $4.50 | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul17-4.500 |
| Above $4.50 | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul10-4.500 |
| Above $5.00 | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul17-5.000 |
| Above $5.00 | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul10-5.000 |
| Above $5.50 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nvidia-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-abo-kalshi-kxh200ws-26jul17-5.500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $2.50 | Above $2.50 | Above $2.50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 57 | 54 | 52 |
| 2026-06-18 | 64 | 54 | 52 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Above $3.00 +8pp 43→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above $2.50 +7pp 57→64¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 68% probability that NVIDIA H200 compute-per-hour pricing will exceed $3.00 by July 3, 2026. The market reflects uncertainty around both near-term pricing strategy and actual H200 availability and demand. Cloud providers typically adjust GPU rental rates based on supply constraints, manufacturing delays, and competitive pressure from alternative accelerators. The contract resolves in about two weeks, leaving limited time for major shifts unless NVIDIA announces significant price changes, supply disruptions materialize, or competing offerings reshape the rental market. Current low trading volume (zero 24-hour volume on Kalshi) suggests sparse market participants, so prices may not reflect full information about cloud provider procurement plans or H200 deployment timelines.

### Key factors

- Current H200 spot-market rental rates and their relationship to the $3.00 threshold as of mid-June 2026
- NVIDIA's official pricing communications or cloud provider rate cards published before July 3
- Supply availability of H200 chips relative to demand, which directly influences rental pricing pressure
- Competitive pricing from alternative accelerators (A100, H100, or other offerings) that may anchor H200 rates
- Trading volume and contract prices on longer-dated H200 pricing contracts (July 10, July 17) that reveal market expectations for sustained pricing levels

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/h200ws
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=h200ws
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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