# Haiti vs. Scotland

> Scotland leads at 66%, runner-up 20% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/haiti-vs-scotland
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:23.344Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-14

## Headline

- Leader: Scotland at 66%
- Runner-up: Draw (Haiti vs. Scotland) at 20%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $703

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 66¢ | ±0 | $685 | polymarket | /markets/haiti-vs-scotland-scotland-polymarket-0x1f2bb0bfc3c7b3c9ab678ce9e89cf68bd6daa83385c4834f669cb00c540276f2 |
| Draw (Haiti vs. Scotland) | 20¢ | −1pp | $18 | polymarket | /markets/haiti-vs-scotland-draw-haiti-vs-scotland-polymarket-0x2b759e69e6b2f509efebfe969cd26ddf30b84242506ddb5ac1e9a8b36cac22a2 |
| Haiti | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haiti-vs-scotland-haiti-polymarket-0x05a303645ac39405969df3786b6e33c74ec3be9e1779adba11e619a10d1feab0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Scotland | Draw (Haiti vs. Scotland) | Haiti |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 67 | 19 | 14 |
| 2026-05-02 | 68 | 19 | 16 |
| 2026-05-08 | 67 | 20 | 15 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 19 | 15 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 35% probability reflects market expectations that Haiti will defeat Scotland in an upcoming match. The current level balances Haiti's recent form and home-field considerations against Scotland's historically stronger competitive standing. The probability could shift significantly based on team roster availability, recent injury reports, or betting patterns in the final hours before kickoff. The match outcome itself—scheduled for a specific date—will ultimately resolve this contract. Cross-venue variation between Kalshi (31%) and Polymarket (35%) suggests some disagreement about Haiti's winning chances, though both platforms assign Scotland as the more likely victor overall.

### Key factors

- Draw contract trading at 18¢ on Polymarket indicates roughly 18% implied probability that neither team wins in regulation
- Scotland contract on Kalshi at 64¢ (implying 64% win probability) trades substantially higher than Haiti's 10¢ on the same venue, showing strong market consensus favoring Scotland
- 4 percentage-point gap between venues suggests incomplete price discovery or different trader composition; Polymarket's higher Haiti probability may reflect different risk appetite or information
- Haiti contract volume is minimal across venues ($0-$50 in 24h volume), indicating limited recent trading activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
- Related Morocco vs. Haiti contract at 28¢ on Polymarket may reflect overlapping player fatigue or scheduling factors if matches occur in close succession

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/haiti-vs-scotland
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=haiti-vs-scotland

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.