# Hamarkameratene vs. IK Start - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hamarkameratene-vs-ik-start-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $882

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $384 | polymarket | /markets/kawasaki-frontale-vs-tky-verdy-more-markets-tky-ve-polymarket-0x2ae2ebd1fd8f36dee4140d1e5d50addade8319b01b9486d126f98e2e54d468c8 |
| O/U 2.5 | 64¢ | — | $254 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 66¢ | +9pp | $134 | polymarket | /markets/yunnan-yukun-fc-vs-zhejiang-zhiye-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xc6f8d09a9355a2998d4b5bd2319c8cef45cdb5936c1c335f76a41462f661d7bf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $82 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/shanghai-haigang-fc-vs-shenzhen-xinpengcheng-fc-mo-polymarket-0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 45 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |
| 2026-05-06 | 42 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5) −20pp 26→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 +9pp 62→71¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 50-50 probability that Hamarkameratene will achieve a specific outcome against IK Start in an upcoming match or fixture. The even split suggests genuine uncertainty among traders about the likely result, with neither team viewed as a clear favorite based on current assessments. The probability could shift upward if recent form data, injury reports, or head-to-head records favor Hamarkameratene, or downward if IK Start demonstrates superior recent performance or roster strength. The scheduled match date itself represents the critical event that will resolve this uncertainty, as the actual result will determine the contract outcome. Traders are essentially weighing current team strength, recent performance trends, and any available situational factors to assess whether this matchup favors either side equally or leans toward one competitor.

### Key factors

- Recent match results and win-loss records for both Hamarkameratene and IK Start across their last 5-10 games
- Head-to-head historical performance between these two teams in previous matchups
- Current player availability, confirmed injuries, or roster changes affecting either team
- Home/away status and venue advantage for the specific scheduled fixture
- League standings position and momentum trajectory of both teams as of the match date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hamarkameratene-vs-ik-start-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hamarkameratene-vs-ik-start-more-markets

## License

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