# Hamarkameratene vs. Vålerenga Fotball - More Markets: Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5)

> Vålerenga Fotball (-1.5) leads at 18%, runner-up 9% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hamarkameratene-vs-vlerenga-fotball-more-markets-vlerenga
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:20:23.995Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-08

## Headline

- Leader: Vålerenga Fotball (-1.5) at 18%
- Runner-up: Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5) at 9%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $62

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vålerenga Fotball (-1.5) | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hamarkameratene-vs-vlerenga-fotball-more-markets-v-polymarket-0xcff89f14550f84b6fb0a2a728ea5c08ddc0c617671b8c2883eeae57427ed5a6f |
| Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5) | 9¢ | +3pp | $62 | polymarket | /markets/hamarkameratene-vs-vlerenga-fotball-more-markets-v-polymarket-0x04f419f14af68f9e379df627893e4244dc7efb25ecf31a9fd1ed8aa73682ae3a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Vålerenga Fotball (-1.5) | Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 21 | 8 |
| 2026-05-07 | 17 | 7 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17 | 10 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Vålerenga Fotball (-1.5) −4pp 21→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Vålerenga Fotball (-2.5) +3pp 7→10¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market prices the probability that Vålerenga Fotball will win by 2.5 or more goals against Hamarkameratene at 36%, meaning the market currently favors either a narrower Vålerenga victory or a Hamarkameratene win or draw. The probability reflects expected form, head-to-head history, and home/away advantage between two Norwegian football clubs. Movement in this contract would depend on team news such as injuries, lineup changes, or recent performance trends that shift expectations about goal differential. The upcoming match itself represents the only catalyst that resolves this contract; the outcome is determined entirely by the final scoreline on match day. Liquidity remains minimal, with no 24-hour trading volume recorded, suggesting limited market interest or positioning at present.

### Key factors

- Current odds imply roughly a 1-in-3 chance of a 2.5+ goal Vålerenga victory, with two-thirds probability assigned to alternative outcomes (Hamarkameratene win, draw, or narrow Vålerenga win)
- No 24-hour volume on either contract indicates sparse market participation, making the stated probabilities potentially more sensitive to small trades or less reflective of broad consensus
- The gap between the -1.5 spread (36%) and -2.5 spread (31%) suggests modest incremental confidence in Vålerenga's ability to extend a narrow lead to a decisive margin
- The match resolution date and final scoreline are the only inputs that determine settlement; no interim data releases or announcements will alter the contract
- Relative team strength, recent form, injuries, and historical performance in goal-differential scenarios are the primary analytical inputs for evaluating whether 36% accurately reflects true underlying probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hamarkameratene-vs-vlerenga-fotball-more-markets-vlerenga
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hamarkameratene-vs-vlerenga-fotball-more-markets-vlerenga

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.