# Will Hamas agree to disarm by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 1 contract — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hamas-agree-to-disarm
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:05:57.369Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 11¢ | ±0 | $12K | polymarket | /markets/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0x2cd4df599867b14e835436e67e524cd04bbd67eaa6454c07b294d9dd0470e6b7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 21 |
| 2026-04-19 | 25 |
| 2026-04-26 | 19 |
| 2026-05-02 | 16 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · June 30, 2026 −8pp 25→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · June 30, 2026 +7pp 18→25¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Hamas will agree to fully disarm by a specified date. The current 23% level suggests traders view disarmament as unlikely within the timeframe, reflecting Hamas's historical resistance to surrendering military capabilities and the broader geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Key factors driving the assessment include the organization's stated commitment to armed struggle, the absence of credible peace negotiations that would mandate disarmament, and the fragmented nature of Palestinian governance. The main catalyst would be any major breakthrough in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations or a significant shift in regional power dynamics. The 13-percentage-point gap between venues suggests some disagreement about baseline assumptions, with Kalshi traders pricing in modestly higher probability than Polymarket participants.

### Key factors

- Hamas's official charter and repeated public statements rejecting disarmament as a precondition for negotiations
- Current state of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks and whether they include binding disarmament clauses
- Regional military balance and whether external actors (Iran, Gulf states) would pressure or support disarmament
- Historical precedent: whether any Palestinian armed group has voluntarily agreed to full disarmament in comparable circumstances
- Timeline specificity: the resolution date matters significantly—longer timeframes increase probability of political change

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hamas-agree-to-disarm

## License

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