# Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East-Stoney Creek provincial by-election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hamstoneyby
Updated: 2026-09-04T19:21:45.676Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Taylor | 40¢ | −34pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-monique-taylor-win-the-2026-hamilton-east-sto-kalshi-kxhamstoneyby-26sep03-mtay |
| Jeff Beattie | 55¢ | +26pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-jeff-beattie-win-the-2026-hamilton-east-stone-kalshi-kxhamstoneyby-26sep03-jbea |
| Heino Doessing | 3¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-heino-doessing-win-the-2026-hamilton-east-sto-kalshi-kxhamstoneyby-26sep03-hdoe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 29 |
| 2026-09-03 | 26 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-03 · Monique Taylor −34pp 61→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-03 · Jeff Beattie +26pp 22→48¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a 32% estimated chance that Jeff Beattie wins the Hamilton East-Stoney Creek provincial by-election in 2026. The relatively low probability reflects that other candidates—particularly Monique Taylor—currently command higher odds in prediction markets. Movement in this contract would likely depend on campaign dynamics, polling data if released, endorsements, and the candidate field's final composition. The by-election itself serves as the decisive catalyst: once voting concludes and results are official, this contract resolves to either 100 cents or 0 cents.

### Key factors

- Monique Taylor is trading at 62 cents, indicating markets view her as the front-runner for this seat
- Market trading volume is very low (18-26 dollars per contract in 24h), suggesting limited confidence in pricing accuracy or minimal information flow
- No public polling or recent campaign news about the by-election race has been identified, leaving prices potentially volatile if information emerges
- Hamilton East-Stoney Creek's historical voting patterns and incumbent party performance would structurally favor or disadvantage candidates
- The final candidate slate has not been determined; changes to who runs would materially affect Beattie's winning probability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hamstoneyby
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hamstoneyby
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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