# Will SPD win the 2026 Hannover mayoral election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 4 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hannovermayor
Updated: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.755Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-13

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $164

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greens | 94¢ | +4pp | $127 | kalshi | /markets/will-greens-win-the-2026-hannover-mayoral-election-kalshi-kxhannovermayor-26sep13-gre |
| AfD | 5¢ | −10pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-afd-win-the-2026-hannover-mayoral-election-af-kalshi-kxhannovermayor-26sep13-afd |
| Die Linke | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-die-linke-win-the-2026-hannover-mayoral-elect-kalshi-kxhannovermayor-26sep13-dlin |
| CDU | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cdu-win-the-2026-hannover-mayoral-election-cd-kalshi-kxhannovermayor-26sep13-cdu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 49 |
| 2026-09-11 | 56 |
| 2026-09-18 | 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | 92 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · AfD −70pp 85→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · AfD −10pp 15→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Greens +6pp 82→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-25 · Greens +4pp 88→92¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The SPD currently has an 19% chance of winning the 2026 Hannover mayoral election, meaning markets assess it as an unlikely but possible outcome. The probability reflects that the Green Party leads at 46%, with SPD second at 36%, while smaller parties (Die Linke, AfD, CDU) trail significantly. SPD's position depends on whether it can consolidate left-leaning and centrist voters, or whether it loses support to Greens or coalition dynamics shift. The outcome will be determined by the October 2026 election itself, but candidate announcements, local campaign visibility, and polling data in the months preceding the vote could shift expectations. Current low trading volume across contracts suggests limited market activity and potential for price movement as the election approaches and more information becomes available.

### Key factors

- Green Party holds 46% implied probability versus SPD's 36%, indicating markets currently favor Greens as frontrunner
- SPD and Greens together represent 82% of total implied probability, suggesting the race is concentrated between two parties
- Trading volume across all five contracts is low (under $10 combined daily volume), indicating thin markets susceptible to repricing
- Die Linke, AfD, and CDU each under 6% suggests fragmentation among right-wing and far-left alternatives
- October 2026 election date is the single resolution catalyst; interim data from candidate nominations, rallies, or regional polling could move prices significantly before then

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hannovermayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hannovermayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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