# Haras El Hodood SC vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-talaea-el-gaish-sc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:05.354Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-1.5) | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xcfd8ae93ecfdafad54e0f1ea37dc78d8f07fd74db45a6370d6396a37b8c856c9 |
| Haras El Hodood SC (-1.5) | 27¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-haras-el-polymarket-0xb14e19c0f3d328077f0a6e1d801f80447eaafd6b56cef3999da5b672f70a075f |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xf2f172d3c51f51880b72b4870d410b871c7520e383ea2a035bcedb034dd1fbe5 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x7b51f5b1ae95d3ae4b6193060967617edf485cb2b357f723eab19886c6839166 |
| O/U 2.5 | 44¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x446a8c525fe3ccc6d446be642ad5d1612a1df49df5a9822e24bf7add79d2ec1f |
| Ghazl El Mahalla SC (-2.5) | 35¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x058269a1aff18752c3ada2ccc0f4c7bda0e35bfca83f4c3305f3ae9363961b16 |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xc3a5b71285575722eddbaa1c2c790d13df8f2da151ac2da7e3376f07143020a0 |
| O/U 1.5 | 61¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xc61feed472ce62ecbd17a09e542ad2cc617cbcf9c5961e5133c512447990dbe0 |
| Ghazl El Mahalla SC (-1.5) | 33¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x38d77b59a8939f700428b00e675928555c3628f66fe7b86df5717a13cac987c4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x288ff0e2c8f28d2ce3086cdcf50104581d515384996453e7affbe355cdb23634 |
| Both Teams to Score | 52¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x5e259bb37b4c32909df4d0c35554cdd4df86416c9592834bc94d270ad9099efe |
| ZED FC (-2.5) | 33¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-zed-fc-2-polymarket-0xc2e12e45eb33652b7356a4da63be0f63a2000e61b346907677c2d3b782bd531a |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xbba7de6218bf80a3f35ab8e20bc25a1ffc79547250260eb453886765e28bc1f0 |
| Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) | 33¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xc7227427d717e9b2e1623fe742087682ff01b0cb992c0d39e7226d057067aff4 |
| O/U 3.5 | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x4cfceeb2e282654542fcf0438a423bd27939511bf6c04f55937570d41fa0151a |
| ZED FC (-1.5) | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-zed-fc-1-polymarket-0x8b80ae2af203e0ef4f0ea26efcff647bf0569e88e3edf1dde5a699d91ccce3a6 |
| Both Teams to Score | 50¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-both-tea-polymarket-0x0691beea653f5d26062c1e4e041bc17fd36382e981f60cea70fc73c437f00c44 |
| Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5) | 23¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-haras-el-polymarket-0x4ba70b99d6c04d9d57466bfed70d00dd35cdb8774eaaf928374090ce3685576a |
| Tala'ea El Gaish SC | 42¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-talaea-e-polymarket-0xf309d5ef7bdc3c2cbc081c50a884e957c3d94aaa13b7d0f7d3f235b980b66b6b |
| Draw (Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC) | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-draw-tal-polymarket-0x0fc637c69071f59c1908180636611b8f1e0c772f345f5d862efa6cc8d17a0787 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the estimated probability that Haras El Hodood SC will win their upcoming match against Tala'ea El Gaish SC. The current 26% assessment reflects a significant divergence between prediction markets: Kalshi prices the outcome at 57% while Polymarket contracts average 24%, suggesting substantial disagreement about Haras El Hodood's chances. The gap may reflect different user bases, contract structures, or liquidity levels across venues. Resolution will occur upon the match completion, with the outcome determined by official final score. Key drivers include relative team form, head-to-head history, and current league standings in the Egyptian football league. Without liquidity on Polymarket and minimal trading volume, the current aggregate probability carries limited conviction.

### Key factors

- 33-percentage-point spread between venues indicates material disagreement on win probability rather than consensus pricing
- Polymarket's 24¢ bid reflects stronger pricing depth (13 contracts) versus Kalshi's single contract at 57¢, affecting aggregate weighting
- Zero 24h volume on Polymarket's Haras El Hodood contract suggests minimal recent trading and potentially stale pricing
- Related market on Both Teams to Score (41¢) and Haras El Hodood -2.5 spread (10¢) provide secondary indicators of expected match dynamics
- Match outcome depends on official final score determination; no scheduled date or postponement factors are evident in available contract data

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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