# Haras El Hodood SC vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 20 contracts — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-talaea-el-gaish-sc
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:41.348Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tala'ea El Gaish SC | 42¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-talaea-e-polymarket-0xf309d5ef7bdc3c2cbc081c50a884e957c3d94aaa13b7d0f7d3f235b980b66b6b |
| ZED FC (-1.5) | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-zed-fc-1-polymarket-0x8b80ae2af203e0ef4f0ea26efcff647bf0569e88e3edf1dde5a699d91ccce3a6 |
| O/U 3.5 | 17¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x4cfceeb2e282654542fcf0438a423bd27939511bf6c04f55937570d41fa0151a |
| Both Teams to Score | 50¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-both-tea-polymarket-0x0691beea653f5d26062c1e4e041bc17fd36382e981f60cea70fc73c437f00c44 |
| Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5) | 16¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-haras-el-polymarket-0x4ba70b99d6c04d9d57466bfed70d00dd35cdb8774eaaf928374090ce3685576a |
| O/U 1.5 | 62¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xc61feed472ce62ecbd17a09e542ad2cc617cbcf9c5961e5133c512447990dbe0 |
| O/U 4.5 | 23¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xc3a5b71285575722eddbaa1c2c790d13df8f2da151ac2da7e3376f07143020a0 |
| Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-1.5) | 32¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xcfd8ae93ecfdafad54e0f1ea37dc78d8f07fd74db45a6370d6396a37b8c856c9 |
| Ghazl El Mahalla SC (-1.5) | 33¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x38d77b59a8939f700428b00e675928555c3628f66fe7b86df5717a13cac987c4 |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x288ff0e2c8f28d2ce3086cdcf50104581d515384996453e7affbe355cdb23634 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x7b51f5b1ae95d3ae4b6193060967617edf485cb2b357f723eab19886c6839166 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xf2f172d3c51f51880b72b4870d410b871c7520e383ea2a035bcedb034dd1fbe5 |
| Both Teams to Score | 52¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0x5e259bb37b4c32909df4d0c35554cdd4df86416c9592834bc94d270ad9099efe |
| Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) | 33¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xc7227427d717e9b2e1623fe742087682ff01b0cb992c0d39e7226d057067aff4 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-more-mar-polymarket-0xbba7de6218bf80a3f35ab8e20bc25a1ffc79547250260eb453886765e28bc1f0 |
| ZED FC (-2.5) | 33¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-zed-fc-2-polymarket-0xc2e12e45eb33652b7356a4da63be0f63a2000e61b346907677c2d3b782bd531a |
| O/U 2.5 | 35¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x446a8c525fe3ccc6d446be642ad5d1612a1df49df5a9822e24bf7add79d2ec1f |
| Draw (Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Ghazl El Mahalla SC) | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-draw-tal-polymarket-0x0fc637c69071f59c1908180636611b8f1e0c772f345f5d862efa6cc8d17a0787 |
| Ghazl El Mahalla SC | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/talaea-el-gaish-sc-vs-ghazl-el-mahalla-sc-ghazl-el-polymarket-0x052b58bbdb8ea96833997b2909baff6b82329eae90e9ea459b0259bf4ca7a59e |
| Draw (Haras El Hodood SC vs. ZED FC) | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/haras-el-hodood-sc-vs-zed-fc-draw-haras-el-hodood-polymarket-0xdb2cae6b3169273e9358fccd78061b7274fe45f9fa28bf6104d3244730dc15eb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 35 |
| 2026-05-03 | 43 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Haras El Hodood SC wins their upcoming match against Tala'ea El Gaish SC. The 29% aggregate probability masks a significant disagreement between prediction venues: Kalshi traders price Haras El Hodood at 49% while Polymarket traders at 26%, creating a 23-percentage-point gap. This divergence may reflect different liquidity levels, trader composition, or informational edges across platforms. The match outcome will be determined by actual play, and both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, and injury status are relevant factors that could shift probability assessments. Resolution occurs when the final match result is recorded, providing clear evidence that confirms or contradicts current market expectations.

### Key factors

- Large cross-venue gap of 23 percentage points suggests incomplete price discovery or different risk assessments between Kalshi and Polymarket participants
- Kalshi's higher probability (49%) reflects only 2 contracts with significant volume ($918 24h), while Polymarket's 26% is based on 12 contracts with zero recent volume
- Polymarket's top contract on this match shows only 25¢ pricing with zero 24h volume, indicating minimal recent trading activity and potentially stale prices
- Match outcome depends on verifiable game result—team form, injury reports, head-to-head records, and tactical matchups are observable factors
- Both Teams to Score market at 42¢ on Polymarket provides correlated but distinct information about expected offensive output

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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