# Will Natalie Harp announce their departure as Special Assistant and Executive Assistant to the President before Oct 1, 2026

> Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 16%, runner-up 13% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/harpannounceout-26aug
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:47.567Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 16%
- Runner-up: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 13%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $61

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 16¢ | +1pp | $61 | kalshi | /markets/will-natalie-harp-announce-their-departure-as-spec-kalshi-kxharpannounceout-26aug-27jan01 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-natalie-harp-announce-their-departure-as-spec-kalshi-kxharpannounceout-26aug-26dec01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 11¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-natalie-harp-announce-their-departure-as-spec-kalshi-kxharpannounceout-26aug-26nov01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-natalie-harp-announce-their-departure-as-spec-kalshi-kxharpannounceout-26aug-26oct01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Dec 1, 2026 | Before Nov 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | 17 | 7 | 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | 23 | 15 | 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | 17 | 15 | 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | 18 | — | 13 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-24 · Before Nov 1, 2026 +11pp 6→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Before Dec 1, 2026 +8pp 7→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +6pp 17→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −6pp 23→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Before Nov 1, 2026 −6pp 17→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This measures the likelihood that Natalie Harp will publicly announce her departure from her White House roles before October 1, 2026—roughly 5 weeks from now. The 5% price reflects the relatively short timeframe and the stability typical of White House staffing positions absent major crises or scandals. The contract prices show traders assign higher probability to a departure announcement by January 1, 2027 (16%), suggesting most expect any exit would occur later in the year if it occurs at all. Key drivers include whether any significant political developments trigger staff changes, performance-related decisions, or personal circumstances affecting her tenure. The primary catalyst would be any official statement from the White House, Harp herself, or credible reporting indicating imminent departure before the October deadline.

### Key factors

- White House staff turnover rates and precedent for mid-term departures in similar positions
- Any public statements or reporting about Harp's job satisfaction, health, or personal circumstances
- Political developments or crises that typically prompt staff changes
- The contract price differential between the October 1 outcome (5¢) and January 1 outcome (16¢) indicates market consensus favors a later departure window if one occurs
- Absence of any recent news or speculation about potential departure as of late August 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/harpannounceout-26aug
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=harpannounceout-26aug

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.