# Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 600000000 in fiscal year 2026

> Above 600 million leads at 77%, runner-up 68% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/harvardfedrev
Updated: 2026-08-27T11:21:45.163Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-15

## Headline

- Leader: Above 600 million at 77%
- Runner-up: Above 650 million at 68%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 600 million | 77¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harvards-federal-sponsored-revenue-be-above-6-kalshi-kxharvardfedrev-26jun30-a600000000 |
| Above 650 million | 68¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harvards-federal-sponsored-revenue-be-above-6-kalshi-kxharvardfedrev-26jun30-a650000000 |
| Above 700 million | 66¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harvards-federal-sponsored-revenue-be-above-7-kalshi-kxharvardfedrev-26jun30-a700000000 |
| Above 750 million | 51¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-harvards-federal-sponsored-revenue-be-above-7-kalshi-kxharvardfedrev-26jun30-a750000000 |
| Above 800 million | 30¢ | +8pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-harvards-federal-sponsored-revenue-be-above-8-kalshi-kxharvardfedrev-26jun30-a800000000 |
| Above 850 million | 23¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-harvards-federal-sponsored-revenue-be-above-8-kalshi-kxharvardfedrev-26jun30-a850000000 |
| Above 900 million | 14¢ | −6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-harvards-federal-sponsored-revenue-be-above-9-kalshi-kxharvardfedrev-26jun30-a900000000 |
| Above 950 million | 7¢ | −2pp | $510 | kalshi | /markets/will-harvards-federal-sponsored-revenue-be-above-9-kalshi-kxharvardfedrev-26jun30-a950000000 |
| Above 1 billion | 5¢ | −4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-harvards-federal-sponsored-revenue-be-above-1-kalshi-kxharvardfedrev-26jun30-a1000000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 600 million | Above 650 million | Above 700 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 11 | 9 | 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | 62 | 58 | 54 |
| 2026-08-26 | 72 | 66 | 64 |
| 2026-08-27 | 76 | 67 | 66 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-25 · Above 700 million +52pp 2→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Above 600 million +51pp 11→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Above 650 million +49pp 9→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Above 750 million +29pp 2→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Above 800 million +24pp 2→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 50% probability that Harvard University's federal sponsored research revenue will exceed $600 million in fiscal year 2026. Federal research funding forms a core part of Harvard's budget, making this metric significant for assessing the institution's research capacity and competitiveness. The probability reflects uncertainty around federal appropriations levels, competition for grants among research institutions, and Harvard's success in securing awards across its schools and centers. Key drivers include overall federal spending priorities—particularly for biomedical, physics, and climate research where Harvard is active—and shifts in grant distribution patterns. The fiscal year 2026 results will become available through Harvard's official financial disclosures, likely in late 2026 or early 2027, providing the definitive outcome. Current pricing suggests meaningful probability mass across outcomes ranging from below $600 million to above $800 million, indicating genuine uncertainty about the final figure.

### Key factors

- Harvard's federal sponsored revenue in FY2025 and historical trend data—whether recent years show growth or decline trajectories
- Total federal R&D appropriations for FY2026 and allocation percentages to research universities versus other institutions
- Harvard's competitive positioning for major grants in NIH, NSF, and DOD funding cycles during the relevant fiscal year
- Changes in federal funding mechanisms or grant award patterns that could systematically affect Harvard's share relative to peer institutions
- Harvard's official financial statements or compliance reports disclosing federal sponsored revenue for FY2026 when filed

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/harvardfedrev
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=harvardfedrev

## License

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