# Who will win Heisman Trophy

> CJ Carr leads at 12%, runner-up 11% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/heisman
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.406Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: CJ Carr at 12%
- Runner-up: Arch Manning at 11%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Carr | 12¢ | ±0 | $101 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-heisman-trophy-cj-carr-kalshi-kxheisman-27-ccarr |
| Arch Manning | 11¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-heisman-trophy-arch-manning-kalshi-kxheisman-27-amann |
| Darian Mensah | 7¢ | +1pp | $808 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-heisman-trophy-darian-mensah-kalshi-kxheisman-27-dmens |
| Dante Moore | 6¢ | — | $462 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-heisman-trophy-dante-moore-kalshi-kxheisman-27-dmoor |
| Julian Sayin | 6¢ | +1pp | $134 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-heisman-trophy-julian-sayin-kalshi-kxheisman-27-jsayi |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 6¢ | — | $27 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-heisman-trophy-trinidad-chambliss-kalshi-kxheisman-27-tcham |
| Jeremiah Smith | 5¢ | ±0 | $7 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-heisman-trophy-jeremiah-smith-kalshi-kxheisman-27-jsmit |
| Jayden Maiava | 3¢ | — | $250 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-heisman-trophy-jayden-maiava-kalshi-kxheisman-27-jmaia |
| Sam Leavitt | 3¢ | — | $23 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-heisman-trophy-sam-leavitt-kalshi-kxheisman-27-slea |
| Gunner Stockton | 3¢ | — | $19 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-heisman-trophy-gunner-stockton-kalshi-kxheisman-27-gstoc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | CJ Carr | Arch Manning | Darian Mensah |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | — | — | 6 |
| 2026-04-15 | 12 | — | — |
| 2026-04-18 | 13 | — | — |
| 2026-04-19 | 12 | — | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 12 | — | 6 |
| 2026-04-25 | 12 | — | — |
| 2026-04-28 | — | — | 8 |
| 2026-05-06 | — | 10 | 9 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The current 12% probability indicates that markets assess this candidate as having a meaningful but not dominant chance of winning the Heisman Trophy in 2026. The Heisman is awarded to the most outstanding college football player each December, with winner selection heavily influenced by regular-season performance, voting patterns favoring certain positions (typically quarterback or running back), and late-season momentum. The probability could shift significantly based on game performance throughout the fall 2026 season, as strong statistical seasons or high-profile victories tend to move odds substantially. The award typically sees final votes cast in early December following the conclusion of the college football regular season, meaning most price discovery will occur from September through November as on-field performance data accumulates. Contract volume of $4,286 in 24-hour trading suggests moderate market interest in this outcome relative to other Heisman possibilities.

### Key factors

- Regular-season performance statistics (passing/rushing yards, touchdowns, efficiency metrics) from September-November 2026 will directly influence final voting
- Historical Heisman voting favors specific positions; quarterback winners comprise roughly 50% of recent winners, affecting positional candidates' chances
- Head-to-head performance in high-profile conference games and bowl visibility typically drives late-season probability shifts
- The final Heisman vote occurs in December following the regular season conclusion, meaning current odds reflect preseason assessment before any game data
- Competitor field composition and relative strength of competing candidates' performances will determine whether this candidate's odds contract or expand

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/heisman
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=heisman

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.