# Will Josh Hoover be selected as a finalist for the 2026 Heisman Trophy

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 16 contracts — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/heismanfinalist
Updated: 2026-09-21T21:20:57.078Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-07

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | 22¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeremiah-smith-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-jsmi |
| Julian Sayin | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-julian-sayin-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-th-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-jsay |
| Gunner Stockton | 51¢ | +42pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gunner-stockton-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-gsto |
| Malachi Toney | 23¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-malachi-toney-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-t-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-mton |
| Arch Manning | 26¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arch-manning-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-th-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-aman |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 20¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trinidad-chambliss-be-selected-as-a-finalist-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-tcha |
| Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jaron-keawe-sagapolutele-be-selected-as-a-fin-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-jsag |
| Kewan Lacy | 8¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kewan-lacy-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-the-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-klac |
| Jayden Maiava | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jayden-maiava-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-t-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-jmai |
| Bo Jackson | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bo-jackson-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-the-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-bjac |
| Drew Mestemaker | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drew-mestemaker-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-dmes |
| CJ Carr | 19¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cj-carr-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-the-202-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-ccar |
| Jadan Baugh | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jadan-baugh-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-the-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-jbau |
| John Mateer | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-mateer-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-the-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-jmat |
| Demond Williams Jr. | 20¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-demond-williams-jr-be-selected-as-a-finalist-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-dwil |
| Sam Leavitt | 10¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sam-leavitt-be-selected-as-a-finalist-for-the-kalshi-kxheismanfinalist-26-slea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | 25 |
| 2026-09-12 | 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | 18 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · Gunner Stockton +42pp 9→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · CJ Carr +15pp 16→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Demond Williams Jr. +14pp 6→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · CJ Carr −11pp 30→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Trinidad Chambliss −7pp 30→23¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects a 10% chance that Josh Hoover will be named as one of the five finalists for the 2026 Heisman Trophy. Hoover's current odds position him well below other quarterback prospects like CJ Carr (22%) and Arch Manning (17%), suggesting market participants view him as less likely to achieve finalist status this season. The Heisman finalist selection, determined by voting in early December, depends primarily on statistical performance through the regular season, particularly yards, touchdowns, and win-loss record. Additional factors include media narrative momentum, voting patterns favoring certain positions, and how Hoover's team's competitive success influences his individual recognition. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the conclusion of the college football regular season in late November, after which voting determines the five finalists announced in early December.

### Key factors

- Comparative QB market pricing shows Hoover at 10% versus Carr at 22% and Manning at 17%, indicating relative performance expectations or perceived draft potential differ significantly
- Heisman voting historically favors players from winning teams and those with elite statistical production (typically 3,500+ passing yards or 1,500+ rushing yards for skill position players)
- Hoover's team's win-loss record and conference strength will materially impact his finalist candidacy regardless of individual statistics
- Media and analyst narrative about Hoover's development trajectory and NFL draft stock may influence voting patterns beyond on-field performance metrics
- Regular season performance metrics through November will be the primary determinant, with no intermediate data releases that typically shift Heisman odds before voting

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/heismanfinalist
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=heismanfinalist

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.