# Henan FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 20 contracts — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/henan-fc-vs-liaoning-tieren-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T10:35:43.342Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liaoning Tieren FC | 16¢ | +1pp | $575 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-liaonin-polymarket-0x76793744c55b6f396dfdf0e4eab54c2c1218d025b5f56e00a0f5c6bd834c230b |
| Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | −6pp | $306 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xeacd4b74856bcd1deffd3d1fa8f946524095752c552907e53b59734bfd8c9c9e |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC | 61¢ | −4pp | $240 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-chengdu-polymarket-0x6c60acc50474a4a4c0433599ebd0985ed84a4bed0c3c704107cd5ed0c366e575 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2651198ee21da63ab9659c2340246270878006e0d2e196e97b422ff660a2772e |
| O/U 2.5 | 44¢ | −1pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x34dea0c254706b6fd913c43aba8ca3870604d03bfc3204ecc5448139d08c204d |
| O/U 1.5 | 76¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x796d0b933764a3bc48b0009b04375a6c9c1224a834fa760e6f521695f86e4310 |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5) | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x45e030f23009132654bc0587068797b39b2abc38de5613ea77ad712c63f5a07f |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x691544e2f6cbc85be5e0a5bf08bd8c7f51c2a8d2b626d6f63dafb62360616208 |
| O/U 3.5 | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x82156713db504fa2705c1ff9ce5c00f07f9e142ed44f3c47d645161336c577e8 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xd79dfebaca45de486c711df7ef97657def0ff910ce0302f037b71716deb6f845 |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) | 34¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x069e2b9a3e65104909d365470d3ce07fd6b91dea5136ddd36b172f02fa91e280 |
| Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) | 8¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x1da10fb00a9e9cf7001b543bdc336af0cd1b788456be443cc5955b3f7f30ed87 |
| Henan FC (-2.5) | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0xd8a866caf15e14a79760ec11047673beef3c241b2f5fb4700ac132917ce6979b |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5) | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x7b11ba1c6d7a1ad6a5fc857f394a9204c76639bef32d4020c7eea8995283e46e |
| Henan FC (-1.5) | 16¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0xd9d7201e51a45b7af5b16027d8430b1cc07673b39c379e7387b6b803c660ab4c |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) | 7¢ | +16pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x264488d77cede87bc46426356939e5763a5c3350f532966b91fa26a611477bf2 |
| Both Teams to Score | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0xda368d7772cf6056ee008026bcab0ef79dda7a600213a99d9b1775fccacb516c |
| O/U 1.5 | 72¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x07f1918b7e44022505592d3732b0229a949e40fd941cc12611fbbc5dda397772 |
| O/U 3.5 | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x0bd1b66d6c20d6a4ca51efc943754df3f1717b13a7a5614133db0a559318c7f3 |
| O/U 4.5 | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x326ee5e648f50a90bb475152e9f0093b6c1560669b6ae789905e9d9aacdc214b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 33 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) +16pp 14→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5) −10pp 32→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Liaoning Tieren FC −9pp 25→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) −6pp 12→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) −5pp 17→12¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 31% probability reflects the market's assessment that Henan FC will achieve a specific outcome against Liaoning Tieren FC in an upcoming Chinese Super League match. The current level sits at the lower end of typical two-team matchup probabilities, suggesting either that Liaoning Tieren FC is favored or that the market assigns significant uncertainty to this particular contest. The probability would move based on team form leading into the match, injury reports, and recent head-to-head performance. Resolution depends on the scheduled match date and the specific outcome condition being traded. Low trading volume on related contracts ($8-390 24h) indicates limited market participation, which typically means wider bid-ask spreads and potentially less reliable pricing.

### Key factors

- Recent win-loss records and current league standings position for both Henan FC and Liaoning Tieren FC
- Confirmed team roster status, including availability of key players and reported injuries before match day
- Head-to-head historical results between these two clubs in the Chinese Super League
- Match venue and weather conditions on the scheduled contest date
- Trading volume and price movement across the 18 contracts on Polymarket in the 72 hours before kickoff

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/henan-fc-vs-liaoning-tieren-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=henan-fc-vs-liaoning-tieren-fc-more-markets

## License

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