# Henan FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 20 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/henan-fc-vs-liaoning-tieren-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:10.202Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 14% / Polymarket 34% — 20pp spread
- 24h volume: $892

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liaoning Tieren FC | 16¢ | +1pp | $392 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-liaonin-polymarket-0x76793744c55b6f396dfdf0e4eab54c2c1218d025b5f56e00a0f5c6bd834c230b |
| Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | −6pp | $306 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xeacd4b74856bcd1deffd3d1fa8f946524095752c552907e53b59734bfd8c9c9e |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC | 61¢ | −4pp | $73 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-chengdu-polymarket-0x6c60acc50474a4a4c0433599ebd0985ed84a4bed0c3c704107cd5ed0c366e575 |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC | 38¢ | +2pp | $57 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-chongqing-t-polymarket-0x903ccc4370f7f20deb743e6ed853814a37e30aa6a33244bebb42306a222db6d5 |
| Liaoning Tieren | 14¢ | +3pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/liaoning-tieren-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-winner-liaoni-kalshi-kxchnslgame-26may05litchr-lit |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2651198ee21da63ab9659c2340246270878006e0d2e196e97b422ff660a2772e |
| O/U 2.5 | 44¢ | −1pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x34dea0c254706b6fd913c43aba8ca3870604d03bfc3204ecc5448139d08c204d |
| Henan FC | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-henan-fc-polymarket-0x87c7a1b36787f225016c845118acb4b447b7d77db2d91359c24a83a78301b306 |
| O/U 1.5 | 78¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x796d0b933764a3bc48b0009b04375a6c9c1224a834fa760e6f521695f86e4310 |
| O/U 3.5 | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x82156713db504fa2705c1ff9ce5c00f07f9e142ed44f3c47d645161336c577e8 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0xd79dfebaca45de486c711df7ef97657def0ff910ce0302f037b71716deb6f845 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x691544e2f6cbc85be5e0a5bf08bd8c7f51c2a8d2b626d6f63dafb62360616208 |
| Draw (Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC) | 24¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-draw-li-polymarket-0x096646db8f7006d0da79d4f8c4d8f55be3e78c5a0af9ae49a6b2978a264bef18 |
| Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x1da10fb00a9e9cf7001b543bdc336af0cd1b788456be443cc5955b3f7f30ed87 |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) | 34¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x069e2b9a3e65104909d365470d3ce07fd6b91dea5136ddd36b172f02fa91e280 |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5) | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liaoning-tieren-fc-vs-chengdu-rongcheng-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x45e030f23009132654bc0587068797b39b2abc38de5613ea77ad712c63f5a07f |
| Both Teams to Score | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0xda368d7772cf6056ee008026bcab0ef79dda7a600213a99d9b1775fccacb516c |
| O/U 1.5 | 72¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x07f1918b7e44022505592d3732b0229a949e40fd941cc12611fbbc5dda397772 |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5) | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x7b11ba1c6d7a1ad6a5fc857f394a9204c76639bef32d4020c7eea8995283e46e |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) | 7¢ | +16pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/chongqing-tonglianglong-fc-vs-henan-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x264488d77cede87bc46426356939e5763a5c3350f532966b91fa26a611477bf2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 |
| 2026-05-03 | 32 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) +16pp 14→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5) −10pp 32→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Liaoning Tieren FC −9pp 25→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) −6pp 12→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5) −5pp 17→12¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/henan-fc-vs-liaoning-tieren-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=henan-fc-vs-liaoning-tieren-fc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.