# Heracles Almelo vs. FC Volendam

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/heracles-almelo-vs-fc-volendam
Updated: 2026-05-04T09:20:24.125Z
Category: general
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $38K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zwolle | 90¢ | ±0 | $18K | kalshi | /markets/zwolle-vs-heracles-almelo-winner-zwolle-kalshi-kxeredivisiegame-26may03zwoher-zwo |
| Tie | 5¢ | +1pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/zwolle-vs-heracles-almelo-winner-tie-kalshi-kxeredivisiegame-26may03zwoher-tie |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 5¢ | +3pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/heracles-almelo-at-zwolle-totals-over-25-goals-sco-kalshi-kxeredivisietotal-26may03zwoher-2 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 29¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/heracles-almelo-at-zwolle-totals-over-15-goals-sco-kalshi-kxeredivisietotal-26may03zwoher-1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 55 |
| 2026-05-01 | 56 |
| 2026-05-02 | 57 |
| 2026-05-03 | 64 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored +3pp 60→63¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/heracles-almelo-vs-fc-volendam
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=heracles-almelo-vs-fc-volendam

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.