# Will Maxwell Frazier be the Democratic nominee for Hawaii's first congressional district

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 3 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hi01d
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.085Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-08

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $175

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Keohokalole | 27¢ | +2pp | $175 | kalshi | /markets/will-jarrett-keohokalole-be-the-democratic-nominee-kalshi-kxhi01d-26-jkeo |
| Ed Case | 68¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ed-case-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-hawaiis-kalshi-kxhi01d-26-ecas |
| Maxwell Frazier | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maxwell-frazier-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxhi01d-26-mfra |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 67 |
| 2026-06-12 | 47 |
| 2026-06-18 | 47 |
| 2026-06-26 | 49 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Jarrett Keohokalole +6pp 20→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Ed Case −4pp 73→69¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated chance that Maxwell Frazier will win the Democratic primary for Hawaii's 1st congressional district. The 32% probability reflects a competitive but uncertain race, with market data showing Ed Case as the front-runner at 66%, while Frazier and Jarrett Keohokalole represent alternative candidates. The current assessment suggests Frazier is positioned as a meaningful challenger but faces significant headwinds against Case's established support. The race will be resolved through the Democratic primary election, where candidate fundraising, endorsements, voter registration trends, and campaign organization will ultimately determine the nomination. Key uncertainties include whether Frazier can consolidate support among voters seeking an alternative to Case, and whether late-campaign developments or voter mobilization efforts shift the race dynamics before primary voting occurs.

### Key factors

- Ed Case's commanding 66% contract price indicates strong market confidence in his nomination, suggesting Frazier must overcome substantial structural advantages held by the front-runner
- The low absolute prices for both Frazier (4¢) and Keohokalole (27¢) combined approach Case's position, indicating market uncertainty about whether Case support is as durable as prices suggest
- Frazier's trading volume ($40 24h) is lower than Ed Case ($136 24h), potentially reflecting less developed market confidence or retail attention compared to the presumed front-runner
- The Democratic primary date and filing deadline will establish definitive candidate participation, with any late entrants or withdrawals materially altering competitive dynamics
- Local endorsements from Hawaii Democratic establishment figures and union organizations traditionally carry significant weight in determining nomination outcomes in the state

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hi01d
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hi01d
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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