# Will the high temp in Chicago be <73° on Apr 21, 2026

> 74° to 75° leads at 42%, runner-up 39% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/highchi
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.726Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Leader: 74° to 75° at 42%
- Runner-up: 72° to 73° at 39%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $19K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° to 75° | 42¢ | +6pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-high-temp-in-chicago-be-74-75-on-may-9-20-kalshi-kxhighchi-26may09-b74.5 |
| 72° to 73° | 39¢ | +4pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-high-temp-in-chicago-be-72-73-on-may-9-20-kalshi-kxhighchi-26may09-b72.5 |
| 70° to 71° | 12¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-high-temp-in-chicago-be-70-71-on-may-9-20-kalshi-kxhighchi-26may09-b70.5 |
| 69° or below | 3¢ | −1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-high-temp-in-chicago-be-70-on-may-9-2026-kalshi-kxhighchi-26may09-t70 |
| 76° to 77° | 3¢ | −6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-high-temp-in-chicago-be-76-77-on-may-9-20-kalshi-kxhighchi-26may09-b76.5 |
| 78° or above | 3¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-high-temp-in-chicago-be-77-on-may-9-2026-kalshi-kxhighchi-26may09-t77 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 74° to 75° | 72° to 73° | 70° to 71° |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 38 | 25 | 10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 44 | 29 | 9 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · 74° to 75° +6pp 38→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · 76° to 77° −6pp 16→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · 72° to 73° +4pp 25→29¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/highchi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=highchi

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.