# Highest Domestically Grossing April Film on May 31

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 97% across 1 contract — refreshed 4 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/highest-domestically-grossing-april-film-may-31
Updated: 2026-05-04T16:50:19.900Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 97¢ | −13pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/highest-domestically-grossing-april-film-on-may-31-polymarket-0xc31a2b8108095d44b03f070d8b473460988faff601b94e0ee3d7d832de253a29 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 99 |
| 2026-04-24 | 99 |
| 2026-05-01 | 100 |
| 2026-05-03 | 87 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · The Super Mario Galaxy Movie −13pp 100→87¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/highest-domestically-grossing-april-film-may-31
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=highest-domestically-grossing-april-film-may-31

## License

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