# What will be the highest grossing movie in 2026?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 10 contracts — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/highest-grossing-movie-2026
Updated: 2026-06-08T09:20:11.508Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 19% / Polymarket 30% — 11pp spread
- 24h volume: $14K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before August 1, 2026 | 3¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-leave-office-before-august-1-202-kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-26aug01 |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 55¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/highest-grossing-movie-in-2026-spider-man-brand-ne-polymarket-0xc4b07998e8f9bf6b95f079d6dc0529f3c6f59698d4e168817ad5f99304de6c57 |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 5¢ | ±0 | $3K | polymarket | /markets/highest-grossing-movie-in-2026-the-super-mario-gal-polymarket-0xec181db4470b152493b58229862af3f6335b77cc719f5a0e7ed58c9f9848b992 |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 14¢ | −3pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/highest-grossing-movie-in-2026-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0xe4f4b614a6c2b4ecd8eb700d19c0e6533d3fbd1bc28193b2255394ef74006e6f |
| Toy Story 5 | 17¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/highest-grossing-movie-in-2026-toy-story-5-polymarket-0xcd57f3ad3bbbdaa96aacabd35f50c2d6e30f777e4a33876a4ab2dcd9f0b8c170 |
| Before election day 2026 | 8¢ | ±0 | $102 | kalshi | /markets/will-nancy-pelosi-resign-her-office-early-before-e-kalshi-kxretirepelosi-26 |
| Before election day 2026 | 13¢ | +1pp | $45 | kalshi | /markets/will-mitch-mcconnell-resign-his-office-early-befor-kalshi-kxretiremm-26 |
| Before September 1, 2026 | 50¢ | −1pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-miguel-daz-canel-leave-office-before-2026-09-kalshi-kxdiazout-mdc-26sep01 |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 73¢ | +1pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026-av-polymarket-0x14d327328063504ab74b2ab11fe68ad305525fafc70effcd5ba5c5c688971988 |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026-sp-polymarket-0x76c1a69f2b0a7fcfa97b56ddbeaad1981a8cb3d8f24c1adce62ffa2d010ebbe0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 15 |
| 2026-05-25 | 23 |
| 2026-06-01 | 24 |
| 2026-06-08 | 16 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Before September 1, 2026 −5pp 53→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Avengers: Doomsday +3pp 17→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · Avengers: Doomsday −3pp 17→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · Before September 1, 2026 +3pp 49→52¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/highest-grossing-movie-2026
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=highest-grossing-movie-2026

## License

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