# Highest grossing movie in 2026

> Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads at 55%, runner-up 16% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/highest-grossing-movie
Updated: 2026-06-08T10:20:08.927Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 55%
- Runner-up: Toy Story 5 at 16%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 55¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/highest-grossing-movie-in-2026-spider-man-brand-ne-polymarket-0xc4b07998e8f9bf6b95f079d6dc0529f3c6f59698d4e168817ad5f99304de6c57 |
| Toy Story 5 | 16¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/highest-grossing-movie-in-2026-toy-story-5-polymarket-0xcd57f3ad3bbbdaa96aacabd35f50c2d6e30f777e4a33876a4ab2dcd9f0b8c170 |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 14¢ | −3pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/highest-grossing-movie-in-2026-avengers-doomsday-polymarket-0xe4f4b614a6c2b4ecd8eb700d19c0e6533d3fbd1bc28193b2255394ef74006e6f |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 4¢ | ±0 | $3K | polymarket | /markets/highest-grossing-movie-in-2026-the-super-mario-gal-polymarket-0xec181db4470b152493b58229862af3f6335b77cc719f5a0e7ed58c9f9848b992 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Spider-Man: Brand New Day | Toy Story 5 | Avengers: Doomsday |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 4 | — |
| 2026-05-10 | 62 | 4 | 23 |
| 2026-05-24 | 65 | 6 | 19 |
| 2026-05-25 | 58 | 6 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 58 | 14 | 17 |
| 2026-06-07 | 55 | 17 | 17 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 17 | 14 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Avengers: Doomsday +3pp 17→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · Avengers: Doomsday −3pp 17→14¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 37% probability reflects the market's assessment that a single film will generate more theatrical revenue than all others released in 2026. Two major films dominate current betting: Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 68¢ and Toy Story 5 at 4¢ on Polymarket, suggesting significant confidence in Spider-Man's commercial performance. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether either tentpole will outpace competitors expected later in 2026, including potential releases from established franchises. The gap between venues (Kalshi 38%, Polymarket 36%) is minimal, indicating broad market consensus. Resolution hinges on actual box office performance through year-end, with major releases typically arriving in summer and holiday windows providing key data points to update expectations.

### Key factors

- Spider-Man: Brand New Day contract trading at 68¢ suggests market expects it to be the year's top earner, but this alone only accounts for roughly two-thirds of the 37% probability
- No film currently has dominant probability positioning; the highest individual contract is 68¢, indicating genuine uncertainty about which title will ultimately lead
- Trading volume on highest-grossing contracts ($825-$3,321 in 24h volume) is substantially lower than Netflix-specific contracts, suggesting limited conviction or smaller trader participation
- The May 4 Netflix contracts show heavy activity ($2,595 volume on Apex) but address a near-term specific event rather than full-year gross revenue
- 2026 still has 7+ months of releases remaining, meaning undisclosed or late-arriving blockbusters could significantly shift probabilities

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/highest-grossing-movie
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=highest-grossing-movie

## License

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