# How high will CPI get this year

> Above 4.2% leads at 23%, runner-up 17% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/highinflation
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.807Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 4.2% at 23%
- Runner-up: Above 4.4% at 17%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.2% | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-high-will-cpi-get-this-year-above-42-kalshi-kxhighinflation-26dec-t4.2 |
| Above 4.4% | 17¢ | −1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/how-high-will-cpi-get-this-year-above-44-kalshi-kxhighinflation-26dec-t4.4 |
| Above 4.3% | 15¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-high-will-cpi-get-this-year-above-43-kalshi-kxhighinflation-26dec-t4.3 |
| Above 4.5% | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-high-will-cpi-get-this-year-above-45-kalshi-kxhighinflation-26dec-t4.5 |
| Above 4.6% | 11¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-high-will-cpi-get-this-year-above-46-kalshi-kxhighinflation-26dec-t4.6 |
| Above 4.7% | 9¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-high-will-cpi-get-this-year-above-47-kalshi-kxhighinflation-26dec-t4.7 |
| Above 4.8% | 8¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-high-will-cpi-get-this-year-above-48-kalshi-kxhighinflation-26dec-t4.8 |
| Above 4.9% | 8¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-high-will-cpi-get-this-year-above-49-kalshi-kxhighinflation-26dec-t4.9 |
| Above 5.0% | 7¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-high-will-cpi-get-this-year-above-50-kalshi-kxhighinflation-26dec-t5.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 4.2% | Above 4.4% | Above 4.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 85 | 69 | 75 |
| 2026-06-12 | 68 | 29 | 42 |
| 2026-06-18 | 15 | 13 | 13 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 15 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 21 | 18 | 16 |
| 2026-06-26 | 22 | 17 | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Above 4.6% +8pp 7→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 4.9% +8pp 3→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 4.3% −7pp 25→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 4.6% −7pp 18→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 5.0% +7pp 4→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects an expectation that U.S. inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, will exceed 3.7% at some point during 2026. The high probability suggests market participants view this threshold as likely given current economic conditions, Fed policy trajectory, and recent inflation persistence. Upward pressure could come from labor market strength, energy prices, or supply-chain disruptions, while downward pressure might result from tighter monetary policy or cooling demand. The resolution will depend on actual CPI releases throughout the year, with monthly reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics providing the definitive data. The modest gap between the 3.7% and 3.8% contracts (97¢ vs 94¢) indicates moderate uncertainty about how much higher inflation might climb, suggesting traders see incremental increases as possible but not dramatic.

### Key factors

- Year-to-date CPI readings as of May 2026 establish the baseline; any monthly print above 3.7% would satisfy the contract
- Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions and forward guidance shape expectations about inflation trajectory and demand management
- Energy commodity prices, particularly crude oil and natural gas, directly influence CPI components and can shift quickly on geopolitical or supply shocks
- Labor market conditions and wage growth persistence determine whether price pressures remain embedded in the economy
- Monthly CPI releases from BLS (typically mid-month for prior month data) represent the concrete measurement events that resolve contract uncertainty

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/highinflation
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=highinflation

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.