# Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° on Apr 21, 2026

> 89° to 90° leads at 58%, runner-up 20% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightatl
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.124Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: 89° to 90° at 58%
- Runner-up: 87° to 88° at 20%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89° to 90° | 58¢ | +18pp | $946 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-89-90-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhightatl-26jun26-b89.5 |
| 87° to 88° | 20¢ | −4pp | $872 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-87-88-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhightatl-26jun26-b87.5 |
| 91° to 92° | 18¢ | −8pp | $566 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-91-92-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhightatl-26jun26-b91.5 |
| 86° or below | 3¢ | +2pp | $620 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-87-on-jun-26-2026-kalshi-kxhightatl-26jun26-t87 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 89° to 90° | 87° to 88° | 91° to 92° |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 33 | 28 | 19 |
| 2026-06-26 | 51 | 24 | 11 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · 89° to 90° +18pp 33→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · 91° to 92° −8pp 19→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · 87° to 88° −4pp 28→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract measures the probability that the maximum temperature in a specific location will reach 79-80°F on April 21, 2026. At 43%, it reflects modest odds relative to the distribution of temperature outcomes traders expect for that date. The current pricing suggests traders see a meaningful chance of this range occurring, though cooler or warmer outcomes are also weighted substantially in the broader contract set. April weather in most temperate regions exhibits high day-to-day variability, and seasonal forecasts from meteorological services become more reliable only within 2-3 weeks of the target date. The resolution of this contract will depend entirely on the actual reported maximum temperature from the designated weather station on April 21, 2026. Historical temperature patterns, climate normal data, and approaching seasonal conditions will likely narrow uncertainty as the date draws closer.

### Key factors

- The 43% probability for 79-80°F sits between higher probabilities for 87-88°F (30¢) and 89-90°F (45¢), suggesting traders expect temperatures above this range more likely than below it
- Historical April 21 temperature records and 30-year normals for the target location directly inform baseline expectations and seasonal patterns
- Current contract volume ($1,335 in 24-hour volume for the leader) indicates active trading but relatively modest liquidity compared to weather derivatives on major benchmarks
- The multi-outcome structure means this 79-80°F contract competes against five other temperature bands, with the top outcome (89-90°F) commanding less than half the probability space
- Uncertainty will collapse sharply only when April 2026 arrives; probabilistic refinement depends on 7-14 day weather forecasts, which gain skill only in early April

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightatl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hightatl

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.