# Will the maximum temperature be 50-51° on Apr 21, 2026

> 79° or below leads at 80%, runner-up 14% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightbos
Updated: 2026-06-29T01:20:49.853Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-29

## Headline

- Leader: 79° or below at 80%
- Runner-up: 80° to 81° at 14%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79° or below | 80¢ | — | $249 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-80-on-jun-29-2026-kalshi-kxhightbos-26jun29-t80 |
| 80° to 81° | 14¢ | — | $202 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-80-81-on-jun-29-20-kalshi-kxhightbos-26jun29-b80.5 |
| 86° to 87° | 3¢ | — | $605 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-86-87-on-jun-29-20-kalshi-kxhightbos-26jun29-b86.5 |

## Analysis

This market estimates the chance that the maximum temperature on April 21, 2026 will fall between 50°F and 51°F at the tracked location. At 36%, this reflects moderate confidence but not a favorite outcome. The April 21 date is approximately 9.8 months away from today, so traders are working with long-range seasonal patterns and historical weather data rather than near-term forecasts. The estimate sits below other temperature ranges in the multi-outcome contract, suggesting cooler temperatures are less likely than readings in the 81–87°F range that dominate current trading volume. The key drivers are the seasonal baseline for late April at this location and variations in spring weather patterns—earlier warming trends would lower this probability, while cooler springs would increase it. Resolution depends on actual recorded temperature on April 21, 2026, making this contract highly sensitive to location-specific climate data.

### Key factors

- Historical April 21 high temperatures at this location establish the seasonal baseline—colder or warmer averages would shift this contract's probability
- Spring temperature anomalies in 2026 (earlier warming or delayed cold) would move this outcome up or down as the date approaches
- Trading volume concentration in 81–87°F ranges (combined ~41¢ implied probability) suggests market consensus favors warmer conditions over 50–51°F outcomes
- The 9.8-month forecast horizon limits near-term model precision; long-range ensemble forecasts from spring 2026 will tighten probability estimates
- Daily weather variance and tail-risk events (late freeze, arctic air) between now and April 21 will incrementally update traders' seasonal expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightbos
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hightbos

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.