# Will the maximum temperature be <63° on Apr 21, 2026

> 94° or below leads at 48%, runner-up 39% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 37 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightdal
Updated: 2026-06-25T22:20:49.794Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-26

## Headline

- Leader: 94° or below at 48%
- Runner-up: 95° to 96° at 39%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94° or below | 48¢ | — | $355 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-95-on-jun-26-2026-kalshi-kxhightdal-26jun26-t95 |
| 95° to 96° | 39¢ | — | $562 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-95-96-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhightdal-26jun26-b95.5 |
| 97° to 98° | 11¢ | — | $328 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-97-98-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhightdal-26jun26-b97.5 |

## Analysis

This contract tracks whether the maximum temperature in a specific location will remain below 63°F on April 21, 2026. At 41% probability, markets are indicating this outcome is less likely than warmer alternatives, though still a meaningful possibility. The current pricing reflects expectations for late-spring weather patterns, where temperatures typically rise above this threshold in most regions. Key drivers of this probability include seasonal climatology for the location in question, any near-term weather system forecasts available at contract listing time, and the distribution of other temperature outcomes across the contract set. The resolution will depend on the actual recorded maximum temperature on April 21, 2026, which will be verified against official weather station data for the specified location. Uncertainty persists because seasonal forecasting at this timeframe remains inherently limited, and individual daily temperatures can deviate significantly from average conditions.

### Key factors

- The runner-up contract (<63°F) trades at 41%, while the leading contract (85-86°F) commands the same price, indicating broad disagreement about which temperature band is most likely
- No contract for extremely low temperatures (<63°F) appears in the top volume metrics, suggesting traders assign relatively low conviction to cold outcomes despite the 41% price
- April 21 falls in late spring for Northern Hemisphere locations, when temperatures typically climb above 63°F in temperate zones but remain cooler in high-altitude or northern regions
- The contract structure is multi-outcome winner-take-all, so pricing reflects relative belief across six discrete temperature bands rather than continuous probability distribution
- Resolution depends entirely on official recorded maximum temperature data for the specified location on April 21, 2026—no weather forecast issued today will remain reliable at that 10+ day horizon

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightdal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hightdal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.