# Will the maximum temperature be 63-64° on Apr 21, 2026

> 88° to 89° leads at 43%, runner-up 27% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightdc
Updated: 2026-06-29T01:20:50.589Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-29

## Headline

- Leader: 88° to 89° at 43%
- Runner-up: 86° to 87° at 27%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $454

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88° to 89° | 43¢ | — | $82 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-88-89-on-jun-29-20-kalshi-kxhightdc-26jun29-b88.5 |
| 86° to 87° | 27¢ | — | $93 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-86-87-on-jun-29-20-kalshi-kxhightdc-26jun29-b86.5 |
| 84° to 85° | 15¢ | — | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-84-85-on-jun-29-20-kalshi-kxhightdc-26jun29-b84.5 |
| 90° to 91° | 13¢ | — | $258 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-90-91-on-jun-29-20-kalshi-kxhightdc-26jun29-b90.5 |

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that the maximum temperature will fall within the 63-64°F range on April 21, 2026 at a specified location. The current 38% level suggests this outcome is considered less likely than alternatives, possibly because late April weather typically produces higher temperatures or because historical patterns for that date favor different ranges. The main drivers are seasonal temperature norms for late spring and any emerging climate patterns that might shift April conditions warmer or cooler than average. The resolution will occur on April 21, 2026, when actual maximum temperature data becomes available. Until then, the probability may shift if longer-range forecasts are issued or if patterns similar to the target date emerge in preceding weeks.

### Key factors

- Historical maximum temperatures for April 21 at the target location compared to the 63-64°F range
- Seasonal warming trajectory in late April relative to earlier spring months
- Current market pricing across four contracts suggests the 63-64°F band ranks third or fourth among competing outcomes
- Distance to resolution date (approximately 10.5 months away) limits availability of actionable weather forecasts
- Runner-up contract at 31% indicates at least one competing temperature range is viewed as notably more probable

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightdc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hightdc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.