# Will the maximum temperature be <72° on Apr 21, 2026

> 92° to 93° leads at 70%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/highthou
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.959Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: 92° to 93° at 70%
- Runner-up: 94° to 95° at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92° to 93° | 70¢ | +17pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-92-93-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhighthou-26jun26-b92.5 |
| 94° to 95° | 21¢ | −2pp | $246 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-94-95-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhighthou-26jun26-b94.5 |
| 90° to 91° | 4¢ | — | $238 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-90-91-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhighthou-26jun26-b90.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 92° to 93° | 94° to 95° | 90° to 91° |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 50 | 27 | 12 |
| 2026-06-26 | 67 | 25 | — |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · 92° to 93° +17pp 50→67¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market contracts on the maximum temperature expected in a specific location on May 31, 2026. The leading outcome of 91–92° carries 49% probability, with cooler outcomes (89–90°) at 27% and warmer outcomes (93–94°) at 15%. Temperature forecasts are driven by seasonal patterns, weather systems, and climate variability typical for late May in the region. Resolution depends on the official recorded maximum temperature on that specific date. Current pricing suggests moderate confidence in a warm but not extreme outcome, with meaningful uncertainty about whether conditions will trend cooler or hotter. Volume concentration in the leading contract reflects stronger conviction around the 91–92° band.

### Key factors

- The leading contract (91–92°) commands 49% of the implied probability, indicating traders expect warm but not peak-summer conditions for late May
- The price gap between the 91–92° contract (52¢) and 89–90° contract (27¢) suggests a shift toward warmer outcomes compared to cooler alternatives
- Trading volume is highest in the warmest plausible outcomes (89–94°), with minimal volume beyond 94°, indicating traders see extreme heat as unlikely
- Historical May 31 temperatures in the region and current atmospheric conditions would anchor baseline expectations for normal seasonal warming
- The resolution date (May 31, 2026) is approximately 1 month away, allowing weather models to sharpen forecasts but leaving room for system changes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/highthou
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=highthou

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.