# Will the maximum temperature be 86-87° on Apr 21, 2026

> 104° to 105° leads at 41%, runner-up 29% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightlv
Updated: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.462Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Leader: 104° to 105° at 41%
- Runner-up: 102° to 103° at 29%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 104° to 105° | 41¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-104-105-on-jul-13-kalshi-kxhightlv-26jul13-b104.5 |
| 102° to 103° | 29¢ | +5pp | $694 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-102-103-on-jul-13-kalshi-kxhightlv-26jul13-b102.5 |
| 101° or below | 22¢ | +6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-102-on-jul-13-2026-kalshi-kxhightlv-26jul13-t102 |
| 106° to 107° | 5¢ | −2pp | $375 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-106-107-on-jul-13-kalshi-kxhightlv-26jul13-b106.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 104° to 105° | 102° to 103° | 101° or below |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 56 | 16 | 9 |
| 2026-07-13 | 53 | 21 | 15 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-13 · 101° or below +6pp 9→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · 102° to 103° +5pp 16→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · 104° to 105° −3pp 56→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market assigns a 68% probability that June 22, 2026 will see a maximum temperature between 105–106°F at this location. This reflects market participants' collective forecast for peak heat on that specific date. The high probability is driven by historical temperature patterns for late June and current seasonal trends that favor elevated heat. Markets for nearby temperature ranges (103–104°F at 12¢ and 107–108°F at 16¢) show declining odds as temperatures move away from the central prediction, suggesting confidence in a warm but not extreme outcome. Resolution will occur on June 22, 2026, when the actual recorded maximum temperature is known and compared against the 105–106°F band. Temperature forecasts beyond 10–14 days typically carry larger error margins, so substantial probability shifts remain possible as the date approaches and shorter-range meteorological data becomes available.

### Key factors

- Historical maximum temperatures for this location on June 21–23 establish a baseline expectation; deviations suggest the current probability may be miscalibrated
- Current atmospheric conditions and seasonal sea-surface temperatures influence medium-range forecast skill; anomalies in typical circulation patterns would raise or lower the odds of the 105–106°F band
- The narrow 2-degree range (105–106°F) concentrates risk; a shift of just 2–3°F either direction moves probability to adjacent contracts, making precision critical
- Forecast updates from National Weather Service and other meteorological models in the 10–14 days before June 22 will provide increasingly reliable temperature predictions, likely compressing remaining uncertainty
- Regional weather systems (high-pressure domes, moisture patterns, cloud cover) 1–2 weeks before the date remain the primary driver of forecast revisions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightlv
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hightlv

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.