# Will the maximum temperature be 71-72° on Apr 21, 2026

> 93° or below leads at 48%, runner-up 29% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightmin
Updated: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.037Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Leader: 93° or below at 48%
- Runner-up: 94° to 95° at 29%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $970

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93° or below | 48¢ | +20pp | $610 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-94-on-jul-13-2026-kalshi-kxhightmin-26jul13-t94 |
| 94° to 95° | 29¢ | −7pp | $208 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-94-95-on-jul-13-20-kalshi-kxhightmin-26jul13-b94.5 |
| 96° to 97° | 16¢ | −13pp | $124 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-96-97-on-jul-13-20-kalshi-kxhightmin-26jul13-b96.5 |
| 98° to 99° | 5¢ | ±0 | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-98-99-on-jul-13-20-kalshi-kxhightmin-26jul13-b98.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 93° or below | 94° to 95° | 96° to 97° |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 25 | 37 | 28 |
| 2026-07-13 | 45 | 30 | 15 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-13 · 93° or below +20pp 25→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · 96° to 97° −13pp 28→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · 94° to 95° −7pp 37→30¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 36% probability that the maximum temperature in the specified location will reach 88–89°F on June 7, 2026. The market is pricing in moderate heat for that date, with the 88–89° band as the modal outcome, while cooler temperatures below 86°F trade at only 11%. Current seasonal weather patterns, historical climate data for early June, and atmospheric conditions in the days leading up to June 7 will determine whether temperatures trend toward the cooler or warmer end of the range. The resolution hinges on the actual recorded maximum temperature on that specific date, which will be definitively settled by official weather station data. Market participants are balancing near-term forecasts against the inherent uncertainty in predicting conditions two weeks into the future.

### Key factors

- Historical temperature data for early June at the location shows whether 88–89°F represents a normal, above-normal, or below-normal outcome for that date
- Current weather forecasts and ensemble models 5–14 days before June 7 will shift probabilities if they show high-pressure systems or heat domes building into the region
- The runner-up contract at 32% (86–87°F) and lowest-priced outcome at 11% (<86°F) indicate market consensus that sub-86° conditions are unlikely, constraining downside scenarios
- Official recorded maximum temperature on June 7, 2026, settles the contract winner; all other outcomes expire worthless and no partial credit applies
- Trading volume concentration in the 88–89° band ($529 24h vol) versus cooler outcomes ($590 for <86°) suggests retail or algorithmic interest in both heat and cooler extremes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightmin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hightmin

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.