# Will the maximum temperature be 80-81° on Apr 21, 2026

> 81° to 82° leads at 35%, runner-up 34% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightnola
Updated: 2026-07-13T06:20:52.438Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-14

## Headline

- Leader: 81° to 82° at 35%
- Runner-up: 83° to 84° at 34%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $843

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81° to 82° | 35¢ | −2pp | $147 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-81-82-on-jul-13-20-kalshi-kxhightnola-26jul13-b81.5 |
| 83° to 84° | 34¢ | +4pp | $279 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-83-84-on-jul-13-20-kalshi-kxhightnola-26jul13-b83.5 |
| 80° or below | 23¢ | −8pp | $194 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-81-on-jul-13-2026-kalshi-kxhightnola-26jul13-t81 |
| 85° to 86° | 8¢ | +4pp | $158 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-85-86-on-jul-13-20-kalshi-kxhightnola-26jul13-b85.5 |
| 87° to 88° | 3¢ | ±0 | $65 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-87-88-on-jul-13-20-kalshi-kxhightnola-26jul13-b87.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 81° to 82° | 83° to 84° | 80° or below |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 23 | 30 | 21 |
| 2026-07-13 | 21 | 34 | 13 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-13 · 80° or below −8pp 21→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · 83° to 84° +4pp 30→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · 85° to 86° +4pp 17→21¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the probability that the maximum temperature in a specific location will reach 90–91°F on June 21, 2026, currently priced at 54% on Kalshi. The 54% probability reflects traders' view that this temperature range is slightly more likely than not, though substantial uncertainty remains. Temperature outcomes depend on seasonal weather patterns, local climate conditions, and any anomalies occurring in June. The main drivers of this probability are historical temperature data for that date and time of year, plus current climate forecasts as they become available closer to June 21. Resolution occurs when the actual maximum temperature is recorded; if it falls within the 90–91°F band, the contract settles at full value. Traders are also pricing alternatives ranging from below 88°F (3%) to 94–95°F (3%), suggesting mild consensus around the 88–91°F range with a median outcome near 90°F.

### Key factors

- The 54% price for 90–91°F is the highest among five mutually exclusive outcomes, with 88–89°F at 20% and all temperatures above 92°F totaling roughly 15%
- Historical climatology for June 21 in this location and recent trend data would inform whether 90–91°F represents a typical, above-average, or below-average maximum
- Current seasonal weather forecasts (available weeks to days before June 21) directly influence contract repricing; any heat wave or cooling pattern warnings would shift probability mass between bins
- The 24-hour trading volume ($439 on the leader contract) is concentrated on the 90–91°F outcome, suggesting active disagreement or limited price discovery rather than consensus
- All five outcomes are live contracts, meaning traders can express directional views: betting on hotter days (92°F+) or cooler days (<88°F) requires selling the 90–91°F contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightnola
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hightnola

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