# Will the maximum temperature be <93° on Apr 21, 2026

> 109° to 110° leads at 55%, runner-up 25% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightphx
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.417Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: 109° to 110° at 55%
- Runner-up: 107° to 108° at 25%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 109° to 110° | 55¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-109-110-on-jun-26-kalshi-kxhightphx-26jun26-b109.5 |
| 107° to 108° | 25¢ | +9pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-107-108-on-jun-26-kalshi-kxhightphx-26jun26-b107.5 |
| 111° to 112° | 19¢ | −10pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-111-112-on-jun-26-kalshi-kxhightphx-26jun26-b111.5 |
| 113° to 114° | 4¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-113-114-on-jun-26-kalshi-kxhightphx-26jun26-b113.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 109° to 110° | 107° to 108° | 111° to 112° |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 45 | 11 | 38 |
| 2026-06-26 | 47 | 20 | 28 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · 111° to 112° −10pp 38→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · 107° to 108° +9pp 11→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' expectations about whether the maximum temperature in an unspecified location will remain below 93°F on April 21, 2026—currently priced at 53% probability, indicating slightly better-than-even odds. However, the leading contracts show traders are focused on much higher temperatures (107–108°F) for June 3, 2026, suggesting the underlying question may reference that date instead. Temperature forecasts depend primarily on seasonal patterns, climate oscillations like El Niño or La Niña conditions, and local atmospheric circulation. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the actual temperature reading on the reference date. Until then, shifts in long-range weather models and updates to climate indices could alter trader expectations. Currently, the 107–108°F bin commands the highest trading volume and probability, reflecting consensus around a hot outcome rather than cooler conditions.

### Key factors

- The question targets April 21, 2026, but top trading activity clusters around June 3, 2026 forecasts at much higher temperature bands, creating ambiguity about the actual reference date and location
- Long-range weather models and seasonal forecasts will be the primary information source updating trader beliefs over the next months
- Current leader (107–108°F at 53%) and runner-up (34%) together account for 87% of implied probability, concentrating risk on a narrow outcome band
- Historical volatility and typical daily temperature ranges for the reference location would inform the plausibility of each bounded bin
- Shifts in ENSO phase or other climate oscillations between now and April–June 2026 could materially change base-case temperature expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightphx
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hightphx

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.