# Will the maximum temperature be 62-63° on Apr 21, 2026

> 65° to 66° leads at 51%, runner-up 23% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightsea
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.332Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: 65° to 66° at 51%
- Runner-up: 67° to 68° at 23%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65° to 66° | 51¢ | +13pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-65-66-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhightsea-26jun26-b65.5 |
| 67° to 68° | 23¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-67-68-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhightsea-26jun26-b67.5 |
| 63° to 64° | 13¢ | −6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-63-64-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhightsea-26jun26-b63.5 |
| 69° or above | 12¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-68-on-jun-26-2026-kalshi-kxhightsea-26jun26-t68 |
| 61° to 62° | 6¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-61-62-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhightsea-26jun26-b61.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 65° to 66° | 67° to 68° | 63° to 64° |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 30 | 22 | 23 |
| 2026-06-26 | 43 | 24 | 17 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · 65° to 66° +13pp 30→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · 63° to 64° −6pp 23→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · 69° or above +3pp 7→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction represents the likelihood that the maximum temperature in a specific location will reach between 62-63°F on April 21, 2026. Currently priced at 43%, this reflects moderate confidence that this temperature range will occur. The price is influenced by seasonal weather patterns for late April and historical temperature distributions for this date. Warmer-than-average spring conditions would lower this probability, while cooler or more typical spring weather would increase it. The resolution will depend on actual recorded maximum temperatures on April 21, 2026, which cannot be known until that date arrives. Early spring weather trends and forecast models as mid-April approaches will be the primary drivers of probability changes before resolution.

### Key factors

- This is priced at 43%, meaning the 65-66°F outcome (34¢) is currently favored over the 62-63°F range, with cooler bands at 8¢ and 13¢ representing lower probability tails
- Historical April 21st temperature data and normal seasonal averages for this location determine baseline expectations before any weather forecasting
- Spring weather can shift significantly; sustained warmer trends or cooler patterns will predictably move this contract's price up or down as April approaches
- The contract resolves on a specific date (April 21, 2026) with no ambiguity once actual temperature readings are recorded
- Volume concentration in the 63-64°F band ($592 24h) and 65-66°F band ($513 24h) suggests most trader interest clusters around temperate outcomes rather than extremes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightsea
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hightsea

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.