# Will the maximum temperature be >65° on Apr 21, 2026

> 68° to 69° leads at 46%, runner-up 22% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightsfo
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.861Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: 68° to 69° at 46%
- Runner-up: 66° to 67° at 22%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68° to 69° | 46¢ | +7pp | $962 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-68-69-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhightsfo-26jun26-b68.5 |
| 66° to 67° | 22¢ | −3pp | $609 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-66-67-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhightsfo-26jun26-b66.5 |
| 70° to 71° | 18¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-70-71-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhightsfo-26jun26-b70.5 |
| 64° to 65° | 7¢ | +2pp | $360 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-64-65-on-jun-26-20-kalshi-kxhightsfo-26jun26-b64.5 |
| 63° or below | 3¢ | −1pp | $93 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-64-on-jun-26-2026-kalshi-kxhightsfo-26jun26-t64 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 68° to 69° | 66° to 67° | 70° to 71° |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 42 | 29 | 8 |
| 2026-06-26 | 49 | 26 | 11 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · 68° to 69° +7pp 42→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · 70° to 71° +3pp 8→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · 66° to 67° −3pp 29→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects expectations about maximum temperature on April 21, 2026 in a specific location. The 34% probability for 70–71° reflects distributed market opinion across five temperature bands, with most traders placing roughly equal weight across a narrow range from 66–73°. Historical weather patterns, seasonal norms for late April, and any available climate forecasts (typically reliable only 10–14 days out) drive current pricing. The outcome will be determined by actual atmospheric conditions and measurement on April 21, 2026—the only event that fully resolves the question. Until that date, traders adjust positions based on updated forecasts and anomalies in nearby weather patterns that might shift expectations higher or lower.

### Key factors

- The median-priced outcome (70–71° at 34%) occupies the middle of the five-band range, suggesting balanced uncertainty rather than consensus toward extreme temperatures
- Lower-temperature bands (66–67°) trade significantly cheaper (5¢) than mid-range outcomes, indicating traders assign materially lower probability to cooler April conditions
- The >73° outcome carries only 6¢ pricing despite being a valid result, showing broad market skepticism of exceptionally warm temperatures in late April
- Volume concentration in the 72–73° band ($1,014 in 24-hour volume) suggests active disagreement about whether outcomes skew warmer or cooler than the current leader
- April 21 sits in late spring for most Northern Hemisphere locations; seasonal climate data and any available extended forecasts (beyond 10 days prior) would anchor initial position-setting

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hightsfo
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hightsfo

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.