# What will Steve Hilton say during Debate Night in California

> Closed. Final outcome: no. Last odds frozen 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hiltonmention
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:50:47.727Z
Category: general
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-05-20

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $23K
- Resolved: no

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Affordable / Affordability | 5¢ | — | $23K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-steve-hilton-say-during-cnn-california-g-kalshi-kxhiltonmention-26may05-affo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 42 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hiltonmention
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hiltonmention

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.