# Will Jarrett Keohokalole be the Democratic nominee for HI-01

> Closed. Last odds frozen 13 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hiprimary
Updated: 2026-08-10T13:20:51.941Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Fatula | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-fatula-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-hi-0-kalshi-kxhiprimary-01d26-bfat |
| Della Au Belatti | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-della-au-belatti-be-the-democratic-nominee-fo-kalshi-kxhiprimary-01d26-dbel |

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Jarrett Keohokalole wins the Democratic primary for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District. Keohokalole is currently positioned as a competitive candidate, trailing frontrunner Ed Case (51%) but significantly ahead of Ben Fatula (3%). The outcome depends primarily on primary election dynamics, endorsements, fundraising, and voter preference shifts in the months ahead. The Democratic primary election will occur during Hawaii's August 2026 primary date, which will definitively resolve this question by determining the actual nominee through voter results.

### Key factors

- Ed Case holds a 9-point probability lead over Keohokalole, suggesting Case maintains structural advantages or polling strength as the current frontrunner
- Keohokalole and Case together account for 93% of Democratic nominee probability, indicating these two are clearly the main contenders with minimal viable paths for other candidates
- Primary election timing is August 2026, providing approximately 2.5 months for campaign dynamics, fundraising totals, endorsements, and voter engagement to potentially shift candidate momentum
- Fundraising reports and FEC filings between now and the primary will provide objective data on relative campaign resources and donor support
- Early voting or pre-election polling conducted in Hawaii during summer 2026 could indicate shifting voter preferences before the primary vote occurs

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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