# Apr 2026 temperature increase

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 8 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hmonthrange
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.651Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-16

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $904

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.03 to 1.09 | 14¢ | +1pp | $677 | kalshi | /markets/may-2026-temperature-increase-103-to-109-kalshi-kxhmonthrange-26may-b1.060 |
| 1.10 to 1.16 | 76¢ | +1pp | $223 | kalshi | /markets/may-2026-temperature-increase-110-to-116-kalshi-kxhmonthrange-26may-b1.130 |
| 1.17 to 1.23 | 6¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/may-2026-temperature-increase-117-to-123-kalshi-kxhmonthrange-26may-b1.200 |
| 1.03 to 1.09 | 20¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/jun-2026-temperature-increase-103-to-109-kalshi-kxhmonthrange-26jun-b1.060 |
| 1.02999 or below | 14¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jun-2026-temperature-increase-102999-or-below-kalshi-kxhmonthrange-26jun-t1.03 |
| 1.10 to 1.16 | 17¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jun-2026-temperature-increase-110-to-116-kalshi-kxhmonthrange-26jun-b1.130 |
| 1.17 to 1.23 | 16¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jun-2026-temperature-increase-117-to-123-kalshi-kxhmonthrange-26jun-b1.200 |
| 1.24 to 1.30 | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jun-2026-temperature-increase-124-to-130-kalshi-kxhmonthrange-26jun-b1.270 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 23 |
| 2026-05-25 | 25 |
| 2026-06-01 | 28 |
| 2026-06-08 | 32 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · 1.10 to 1.16 +19pp 42→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · 1.10 to 1.16 +13pp 61→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · 1.10 to 1.16 +10pp 61→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · 1.10 to 1.16 −10pp 72→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · 1.03 to 1.09 −9pp 23→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 27% probability reflects the likelihood that April 2026 experienced an above-average temperature increase compared to historical baselines. The assessment hinges on two primary factors: actual April temperature readings as they accumulate and finalize, and how those readings compare to the specific baseline period established by each contract. Markets show material disagreement on extremes—some contracts price 54-55°F outcomes at 4 cents while 63-64°F outcomes trade at 97 cents—suggesting uncertainty about regional location and the specific metric being measured. The resolution date is imminent since April 2026 has already concluded, meaning official meteorological data releases and NOAA/weather service finalization of April temperature records will directly determine the outcome. Liquidity concentrates on near-normal temperature ranges rather than extreme scenarios, indicating moderate confidence in moderate departures from baseline.

### Key factors

- Official April 2026 mean, maximum, or minimum temperature data from NOAA or equivalent meteorological authority determines the numerator
- The specific baseline period (e.g., 1951-1980, 1981-2010, or 20th century mean) against which the 'increase' is measured affects whether the threshold is met
- Geographic location of the measurement station (regional variation in warming is substantial) is embedded in contract specifications but creates ambiguity across venues
- Contracts pricing 54-55°F at 4 cents versus 63-64°F at 97 cents suggests wide disagreement on the expected distribution, indicating incomplete information about the exact measurement methodology
- The 1-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (27%) and Polymarket (26%) is narrow, suggesting reasonable market convergence despite heterogeneous contract designs

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hmonthrange
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hmonthrange

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.