# Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:50:47.727Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 78%
- Runner-up: O/U 2.5 at 54%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $31

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 78¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x2e6bb7cb8f323d978a8fadf561c1496a0f6d8298d2c6efa5321b54bee0705304 |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | −17pp | $31 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x12cb79b9213eccdd8f35d1135073dd17e5e20273e2306aeb96b44cccd091e2fd |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | −17pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x3d911221648823c1087df22eb6d2d5fc2ee0ef213d51afeb1b4193a777432eaf |
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-1.5) | 36¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0xcca25a65e8448fbb4aa8c06f0ca6fbf0c7b3cb6060a43dd0414d69b32b1fc845 |
| O/U 3.5 | 31¢ | −16pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x49ed80a3b9531eea817bc20384d20ac3eae558d647ba1b09354789e33b33fb98 |
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-2.5) | 17¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x50d1b1bda87e6cd16b3ed4f8e35650399bc8f3d463ed3272a8f24db36584dd2f |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | −24pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x2d6f526ac4b489f0fa76b549ed100f2a4ef6c42208eb1c75fe4a73494f46eee5 |
| AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x0f2b3ba75971abcde502d3fa8eeb0dbbbce4901c67fafb3cdf002aa3f5049e2a |
| AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5) | 6¢ | −30pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x3db89e322cf7de910df0fae46ada35f0f46cb9d277932a373291b408016c85f4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | O/U 2.5 | Both Teams to Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 64 | 51 | 50 |
| 2026-05-03 | 63 | 54 | 55 |
| 2026-05-06 | 69 | 37 | 38 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5) −30pp 38→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 4.5 −24pp 34→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5) −20pp 33→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 2.5 −17pp 54→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Both Teams to Score −17pp 55→38¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' estimate that both Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo and AC Nagano Parceiro will score at least one goal each in their upcoming match, currently priced at 55% likelihood. The probability sits notably above the moneyline probability for either team winning alone (around 50%), suggesting modest confidence in an open, two-sided contest rather than a defensive stalemate or dominant one-team performance. Key drivers include both teams' recent offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities in the J2 League, along with venue and weather conditions on match day. The outcome will be determined once the final whistle sounds and the score is confirmed, making this particularly sensitive to team form, injury status, and tactical adjustments in the days leading up to kickoff.

### Key factors

- Both clubs' recent scoring frequency and defensive records in J2 League matches provide the baseline expectation for goal probability
- Availability of key attacking and defensive personnel, particularly injuries affecting either team's lineup depth
- Match location and weather conditions on game day, which typically influence passing accuracy and shooting efficiency
- Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between these specific opponents
- Trading volume and contract prices across related markets (O/U 2.5, O/U 1.5, and moneyline) show low recent activity, meaning prices may not reflect late-breaking team news

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-more-markets

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