# Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:50:47.727Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo at 60%
- Runner-up: Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro) at 22%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $288

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo | 60¢ | +28pp | $179 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-ho-polymarket-0x138f6b57280ad59d6d75bfceb6ba63aa3cc369d718f275c28f6cb995fb9b2b05 |
| Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro) | 22¢ | −23pp | $59 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-dr-polymarket-0xdd765cef72c5da3ca348fa0d7b0ee6f53146c1e310a0bba3ddd4e798385886d6 |
| AC Nagano Parceiro | 17¢ | −16pp | $51 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-ac-polymarket-0x9bd3d86b848be1f15a9812fda9adb892b145019a0737cefda65ecf985ad8a2f1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo | Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro) | AC Nagano Parceiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 47 | — | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 49 | 40 | 29 |
| 2026-05-06 | 77 | 17 | 13 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo +28pp 49→77¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro) −23pp 40→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · AC Nagano Parceiro −16pp 29→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · AC Nagano Parceiro −11pp 40→29¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contracts reflect traders' assessment that Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo is slightly favored to win this matchup against AC Nagano Parceiro. The 50% probability for Sapporo, against 39% for Nagano, suggests modest confidence rather than a decisive expectation. Market pricing typically reflects recent form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage considerations. The resolution will depend on the teams' relative strength on the scheduled match date—factors including squad depth, current league position, and injury status would influence whether the current pricing holds or shifts. The relatively low trading volume across contracts suggests limited market conviction, meaning substantial new information or late lineup changes could shift probabilities noticeably before kickoff.

### Key factors

- Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo's current league standing, recent win-loss record, and goal differential compared to AC Nagano Parceiro
- Historical head-to-head results and goal margins between these two clubs over the past 2-3 seasons
- Team sheet availability 24-48 hours before match: absences of key players, suspensions, or surprise roster decisions
- Home-field location and travel fatigue, as ground advantage typically affects J-League match outcomes measurably
- AC Nagano Parceiro's defensive record and attacking efficiency in recent matches relative to Sapporo's defensive vulnerabilities

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro

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