# Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Fujieda MYFC - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 20 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-fujieda-myfc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:20:23.786Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-ho-polymarket-0x138f6b57280ad59d6d75bfceb6ba63aa3cc369d718f275c28f6cb995fb9b2b05 |
| Both Teams to Score | 56¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x3d911221648823c1087df22eb6d2d5fc2ee0ef213d51afeb1b4193a777432eaf |
| Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro) | 35¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-dr-polymarket-0xdd765cef72c5da3ca348fa0d7b0ee6f53146c1e310a0bba3ddd4e798385886d6 |
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-1.5) | 32¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0xcca25a65e8448fbb4aa8c06f0ca6fbf0c7b3cb6060a43dd0414d69b32b1fc845 |
| AC Nagano Parceiro | 36¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-ac-polymarket-0x9bd3d86b848be1f15a9812fda9adb892b145019a0737cefda65ecf985ad8a2f1 |
| AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x3db89e322cf7de910df0fae46ada35f0f46cb9d277932a373291b408016c85f4 |
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-2.5) | 33¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x50d1b1bda87e6cd16b3ed4f8e35650399bc8f3d463ed3272a8f24db36584dd2f |
| AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5) | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x0f2b3ba75971abcde502d3fa8eeb0dbbbce4901c67fafb3cdf002aa3f5049e2a |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x2e6bb7cb8f323d978a8fadf561c1496a0f6d8298d2c6efa5321b54bee0705304 |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x12cb79b9213eccdd8f35d1135073dd17e5e20273e2306aeb96b44cccd091e2fd |
| O/U 3.5 | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x49ed80a3b9531eea817bc20384d20ac3eae558d647ba1b09354789e33b33fb98 |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x2d6f526ac4b489f0fa76b549ed100f2a4ef6c42208eb1c75fe4a73494f46eee5 |
| Fujieda MYFC | 49¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-fujieda-myfc-polymarket-0x4bfcf94328459f9b96e5b319c36383116420f7fde0a3adb131bfe62a9e1fc395 |
| Fukushima United FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-f-polymarket-0x37f47e700c3fca9d09d29e917fa33865d1d36e78ab220205158c040a782519c3 |
| Fukushima United FC (-2.5) | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-f-polymarket-0xa28785ed92e4f5f80469a41251035e0a5070ec3bee325b6c68a7fcfffe9800f2 |
| Draw (Fujieda MYFC vs. Fukushima United FC) | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-draw-fujieda-m-polymarket-0xfd9ea43e4394efe2057eddcc7e48be723d3db827eb8acb68f99211e5a52cf2dc |
| Fujieda MYFC (-2.5) | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-f-polymarket-0x5720644d6de3d853f17d98b3f540ed7400047e5395f9b25483cf2004fb004517 |
| Both Teams to Score | 47¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x2c9b2c177c59e71ec645a3e8f9aa0615fe7006817ec471b7ad0c04d9217af16e |
| Fukushima United FC | 36¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-fukushima-unit-polymarket-0x19ecdc51afb427b5b6d277bfec4aa09a62e3060e8eeba72263f639b2485d09ff |
| O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x799b4127a82931bf9daf48211943e47b260b95de63fb22de6bed85cd69a0e88e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · AC Nagano Parceiro −11pp 40→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Both Teams to Score +5pp 50→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Fukushima United FC (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-1.5) +3pp 38→41¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 50% probability that Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo will defeat Fujieda MYFC in an upcoming J-League or Japanese football match. The even split suggests neither team has a clear perceived advantage based on current market sentiment. Key drivers of this probability include recent form, head-to-head history, injuries, and home-field status. The market will resolve once the match is played and a final result is determined. Low trading volume ($0 24h) across related contracts suggests limited recent activity and potentially thin liquidity, which may reduce confidence in the accuracy of the current 50% assessment. The exact match date and venue details would be critical for evaluating whether this probability appropriately reflects team capabilities and contextual factors.

### Key factors

- Recent league standings and points differential between Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo and Fujieda MYFC in their respective divisions or competitions
- Head-to-head historical record between these two clubs, including results, goal differential, and playing style matchups
- Confirmed team roster status, including key player injuries, suspensions, or recent transfers that affect squad composition
- Home versus away designation for the match, as well as venue-specific performance records for each team
- League position and current form trajectory (wins/losses/draws in last 5-10 matches) for both clubs entering the fixture

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-fujieda-myfc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-fujieda-myfc-more-markets

## License

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