# Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Iwaki FC - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-iwaki-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $379

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo | 60¢ | +28pp | $179 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-ho-polymarket-0x138f6b57280ad59d6d75bfceb6ba63aa3cc369d718f275c28f6cb995fb9b2b05 |
| Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro) | 22¢ | −23pp | $59 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-dr-polymarket-0xdd765cef72c5da3ca348fa0d7b0ee6f53146c1e310a0bba3ddd4e798385886d6 |
| AC Nagano Parceiro | 17¢ | −16pp | $51 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-ac-polymarket-0x9bd3d86b848be1f15a9812fda9adb892b145019a0737cefda65ecf985ad8a2f1 |
| O/U 1.5 | 77¢ | +18pp | $36 | polymarket | /markets/rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x2195c5941536ecd4f1e6519856fc7eda857cc66864574a9f6c796a0fa6c848b0 |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | −17pp | $31 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x12cb79b9213eccdd8f35d1135073dd17e5e20273e2306aeb96b44cccd091e2fd |
| RB Ōmiya Ardija (-1.5) | 17¢ | −16pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc-more-markets-rb-miya-ar-polymarket-0xe2879d9fbfb8ffdfcacb06244f7b469a2e0b78be928e96e7ba6e00f985234d3a |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | −17pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x3d911221648823c1087df22eb6d2d5fc2ee0ef213d51afeb1b4193a777432eaf |
| AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5) | 6¢ | −30pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x3db89e322cf7de910df0fae46ada35f0f46cb9d277932a373291b408016c85f4 |
| O/U 3.5 | 31¢ | −16pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x49ed80a3b9531eea817bc20384d20ac3eae558d647ba1b09354789e33b33fb98 |
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-2.5) | 17¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x50d1b1bda87e6cd16b3ed4f8e35650399bc8f3d463ed3272a8f24db36584dd2f |
| O/U 1.5 | 78¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x2e6bb7cb8f323d978a8fadf561c1496a0f6d8298d2c6efa5321b54bee0705304 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | −24pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x2d6f526ac4b489f0fa76b549ed100f2a4ef6c42208eb1c75fe4a73494f46eee5 |
| AC Nagano Parceiro (-2.5) | 9¢ | −20pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0x0f2b3ba75971abcde502d3fa8eeb0dbbbce4901c67fafb3cdf002aa3f5049e2a |
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo (-1.5) | 36¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-ac-nagano-parceiro-mo-polymarket-0xcca25a65e8448fbb4aa8c06f0ca6fbf0c7b3cb6060a43dd0414d69b32b1fc845 |
| Iwaki FC (-1.5) | 16¢ | −19pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc-more-markets-iwaki-fc-1-polymarket-0x3783e682e06b1fb18c4edb552ef8009029daa4f54c6b0825698c751b4e6bbf0a |
| Both Teams to Score | 59¢ | +17pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc-more-markets-both-teams-polymarket-0xbb1f4e3c06abdaa9d6894e713107909cf902aab12c5482f14d1ba3112844b486 |
| Iwaki FC (-2.5) | 6¢ | −24pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc-more-markets-iwaki-fc-2-polymarket-0x129775c572f0cf62732652b37b7a8fec962593b42b7d26e0ac29ef648cf5a1cd |
| RB Ōmiya Ardija (-2.5) | 6¢ | −18pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc-more-markets-rb-miya-ar-polymarket-0x8e56ccaf10780991a1cbf8bc446de44108e0b51ec36cca756c652d3564307711 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | +11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x728f8967cf1e0065a59bf43f57b413130be54ee94dc766ada39d7a51d48d870a |
| O/U 3.5 | 30¢ | +12pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/rb-miya-ardija-vs-iwaki-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x0f34a8315d776c3b376c264aee10351756fca5d7c1f06a873e29573e143d10f8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 |
| 2026-05-06 | 34 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · AC Nagano Parceiro (-1.5) −30pp 38→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo +28pp 49→77¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · O/U 4.5 −24pp 34→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Iwaki FC (-2.5) −24pp 35→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. AC Nagano Parceiro) −23pp 40→17¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 31% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Iwaki FC will achieve a specific outcome against Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo, likely a win or draw depending on the contract terms. The probability sits below even odds, suggesting traders view Consadole as the favored side given their typical competitive standing in the J-League hierarchy. The level depends primarily on recent form for both teams, current injury status, and head-to-head historical patterns. The resolution will be determined when the match is played, which represents the primary event that will eliminate uncertainty around this outcome. Market participants are trading based on team strength assessments, home-field advantage factors, and any available tactical information about squad composition.

### Key factors

- Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo's league position and recent win-loss record versus Iwaki FC's current standing and form
- Historical head-to-head results between the two clubs and any consistent advantages in direct matchups
- Confirmed player availability on match day, including injuries to key starters that would materially affect competitive balance
- Home-field location and any documented performance patterns for either team at their respective stadiums
- The scheduled match date and any weather or environmental factors known to affect play at Sapporo's venue

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-iwaki-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-iwaki-fc-more-markets

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