# Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija - More Markets: O/U 4.5

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-more-markets-ou
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:20:14.662Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 80%
- Runner-up: O/U 2.5 at 57%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $112

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 80¢ | −1pp | $71 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-more-m-polymarket-0xe1dc5d05daecc95910cab3184a71d1e2abc695bba5391043c1cb8a0e5451a561 |
| O/U 2.5 | 57¢ | +1pp | $41 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-more-m-polymarket-0x0932fdf42b43cb43df6c2bfda0c47f398b5e4433a7b8e4e42c072367b2c9227a |
| O/U 3.5 | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-more-m-polymarket-0x031cc0184d55bb2108ba8e63a2cdd3473ff4a5c6b950ed9a9590c250cc8232e4 |
| O/U 4.5 | 18¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-more-m-polymarket-0x65fad942f51ef003520f385190742bcee610c7aa0aebdb185d672cc9baae390e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | O/U 2.5 | O/U 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 65 | 50 | 38 |
| 2026-05-07 | 65 | 51 | 38 |
| 2026-05-08 | 64 | — | 41 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · O/U 4.5 −4pp 24→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · O/U 3.5 +3pp 38→41¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market is asking whether a soccer match between Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo and RB Ōmiya Ardija will produce more than 4.5 total goals. The current 61% probability favoring over 1.5 goals (reflected in the leading contract price) suggests traders believe a low-scoring outcome is more likely, with the 33¢ price on the over 4.5 contract indicating skepticism about a high-scoring game. The probability distribution across multiple goal thresholds reflects uncertainty about both teams' offensive and defensive capabilities relative to historical performance. The match result will provide definitive resolution once played. Market depth appears limited, with zero 24-hour volume across contracts, suggesting thin liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads.

### Key factors

- Recent goal-scoring trends for both Sapporo and Ōmiya in J-League play, including average goals per match and clean sheet frequency
- Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two clubs in prior season matchups
- Current form and injury status of key attacking and defensive players for each team
- League-wide goal-scoring averages in the current season to establish baseline scoring environment
- Match venue, weather conditions forecast, and any tactical adjustments known before kickoff

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-more-markets-ou
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-more-markets-ou

## License

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