# Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija - More Markets: RB Ōmiya Ardija (-2.5)

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-more-markets-rb
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:20:14.662Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: RB Ōmiya Ardija (-1.5) at 17%
- Runner-up: RB Ōmiya Ardija (-2.5) at 6%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Ōmiya Ardija (-1.5) | 17¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-more-m-polymarket-0xa2ef45f4f469431f59aa97ff1451e86fa9122e7c3bfe6725ff94b3de8a47d574 |
| RB Ōmiya Ardija (-2.5) | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-more-m-polymarket-0xe24e080f174a0be42030709b59f18dd8f47b76c75a03c5223733ab83932ae22a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | RB Ōmiya Ardija (-1.5) | RB Ōmiya Ardija (-2.5) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 33 | 28 |
| 2026-05-07 | 37 | 27 |
| 2026-05-08 | 32 | 28 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · RB Ōmiya Ardija (-1.5) −5pp 37→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · RB Ōmiya Ardija (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that RB Ōmiya Ardija will win their upcoming match against Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo by more than 2.5 goals. At 33%, the market assigns this outcome roughly one-third likelihood, suggesting most participants expect either a closer result or a Consadole victory. Current trading is thin with negligible 24-hour volume across the two linked contracts, indicating limited recent market activity or consensus-building. The probability would likely rise if Ōmiya enters the match with strong recent form or if Consadole faces injury problems, and would fall if Consadole shows improved defensive performance or Ōmiya struggles in training. The match itself will definitively resolve this contract upon completion, making the final scoreline the primary catalyst determining the outcome.

### Key factors

- Relative team form and goal-scoring efficiency in J-League matches immediately preceding this fixture
- Recent head-to-head scoring patterns between these two clubs, particularly whether matches tend to be high-scoring or defensive
- Availability of key attacking and defensive players for both teams, which directly impacts scoring capacity
- Current league position and goal differential for both sides, reflecting their typical match outcomes
- Ōmiya's recent streak of wins/losses by specific margins, indicating whether blowout victories are part of their recent pattern

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-more-markets-rb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-more-markets-rb

## License

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