# Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija

> Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo leads at 38%, runner-up 34% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:05:10.947Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo at 38%
- Runner-up: RB Ōmiya Ardija at 34%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $494

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo | 38¢ | +2pp | $183 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-hokkai-polymarket-0x714db10f4817e7cee8b3d6431824e3fd410d0c78a271320d825047bdf9b59d58 |
| RB Ōmiya Ardija | 34¢ | −3pp | $216 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-rb-miy-polymarket-0x539507c44fd162012e6ed93c5de92bfa567650516fdf5170a6f1e8f0068ca2e4 |
| Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija) | 28¢ | −5pp | $95 | polymarket | /markets/hokkaid-consadole-sapporo-vs-rb-miya-ardija-draw-h-polymarket-0xeff5cd9aeb127fe520de8532cc96a62ab597e64aa6edcf475121896f071ed7d7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo | RB Ōmiya Ardija | Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 39 | 38 | 35 |
| 2026-05-07 | 35 | 38 | 36 |
| 2026-05-08 | 37 | 36 | 31 |
| 2026-05-09 | 39 | 33 | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Draw (Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. RB Ōmiya Ardija) −5pp 36→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo −4pp 39→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · RB Ōmiya Ardija −3pp 36→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects a 48% chance that Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo wins their match against RB Ōmiya Ardija, with a 39% probability of a draw and 13% implied for an Ōmiya victory. The market assessment leans slightly toward Sapporo but indicates genuine uncertainty. Current pricing is driven by recent form, head-to-head records, and squad availability, while the outcome will be determined by the scheduled match result. Contract volume has been minimal, suggesting limited trader activity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads. Shifts in probability would likely reflect late-breaking team news—injuries to key players, lineup changes, or roster updates—in the days before kickoff. The resolution point is the official final score of the fixture, which would settle all contracts immediately upon match completion.

### Key factors

- Recent J-League standings and points differential between Sapporo and Ōmiya as of late April 2026
- Head-to-head record in the last 3–5 matchups between these clubs, including home and away performance splits
- Confirmed squad availability: absences due to injury, international call-ups, or suspension for either team
- Current form trend over the last 5–10 matches for each club (wins, losses, goals for/against)
- Home-field advantage significance and historical conversion rates at Sapporo's venue versus Ōmiya's record in away matches

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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