# Will the max temperature in Miami be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026

> Washington DC leads at 96%, runner-up 95% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/holidaytmax
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:51.750Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-05

## Headline

- Leader: Washington DC at 96%
- Runner-up: New York City at 95%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington DC | 96¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-max-temperature-in-washington-dc-be-above-kalshi-kxholidaytmax-26070475-dc |
| New York City | 95¢ | — | $436 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-max-temperature-in-new-york-city-be-above-kalshi-kxholidaytmax-26070475-nyc |
| Minneapolis | 93¢ | +19pp | $432 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-max-temperature-in-minneapolis-be-above-7-kalshi-kxholidaytmax-26070475-min |
| Philadelphia | 91¢ | — | $848 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-max-temperature-in-philadelphia-be-above-kalshi-kxholidaytmax-26070475-phil |
| Denver | 91¢ | +16pp | $246 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-max-temperature-in-denver-be-above-75-deg-kalshi-kxholidaytmax-26070475-den |
| Boston | 75¢ | −49pp | $216 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-max-temperature-in-boston-be-above-75-deg-kalshi-kxholidaytmax-26070475-bos |
| Seattle | 73¢ | +13pp | $223 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-max-temperature-in-seattle-be-above-75-de-kalshi-kxholidaytmax-26070475-sea |
| Chicago | 50¢ | +15pp | $375 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-max-temperature-in-chicago-be-above-75-de-kalshi-kxholidaytmax-26070475-chi |
| Los Angeles | 38¢ | −41pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-max-temperature-in-los-angeles-be-above-7-kalshi-kxholidaytmax-26070475-lax |
| San Francisco | 5¢ | +10pp | $492 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-max-temperature-in-san-francisco-be-above-kalshi-kxholidaytmax-26070475-sfo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Washington DC | New York City | Minneapolis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 80 | 76 | 73 |
| 2026-06-25 | — | — | 92 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Boston −49pp 76→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Los Angeles −41pp 67→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Minneapolis +19pp 73→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Denver +16pp 73→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Chicago +15pp 63→78¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 97% chance that Miami's maximum temperature will exceed 75°F on July 4, 2026. The high probability reflects historical weather patterns for South Florida in early July, when temperatures routinely exceed this threshold. Current market pricing suggests traders view this outcome as nearly certain, with comparable contracts for other major U.S. cities showing similarly high probabilities for southern locations (New Orleans and Oklahoma City both at 97%) and lower probabilities for northern cities like New York (86%) and Los Angeles (30%). The main factors affecting this estimate are typical summer heat patterns in South Florida and any exceptional cooling systems that develop in early July. Resolution occurs on July 4, 2026, when the National Weather Service reports Miami's official daily maximum temperature.

### Key factors

- Miami's July average high temperature is approximately 90°F, making 75°F well below historical norms for the date
- Market prices for New Orleans and Oklahoma City are also priced at 97%, suggesting consistency in regional heat expectations across southern U.S. locations
- Northern cities like New York (86%) and Los Angeles (30%) show dramatically lower probabilities, indicating geographic variation drives pricing rather than uniform seasonal bias
- The contract resolves based on National Weather Service official maximum temperature readings, eliminating ambiguity in measurement methodology
- Nine days of lead time before resolution date allows weather models to substantially refine forecasts, potentially shifting probabilities if anomalous cooling patterns emerge

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/holidaytmax
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=holidaytmax

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.