# Will the min temperature in Seattle be below 50 degrees on Jul 4, 2026

> San Francisco leads at 7%, runner-up 5% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 19 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/holidaytmin
Updated: 2026-06-29T00:20:50.430Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-05

## Headline

- Leader: San Francisco at 7%
- Runner-up: Seattle at 5%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | 7¢ | ±0 | $380 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-min-temperature-in-san-francisco-be-below-kalshi-kxholidaytmin-26070450-sfo |
| Seattle | 5¢ | −5pp | $643 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-min-temperature-in-seattle-be-below-50-de-kalshi-kxholidaytmin-26070450-sea |
| Denver | 5¢ | −6pp | $227 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-min-temperature-in-denver-be-below-50-deg-kalshi-kxholidaytmin-26070450-den |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | San Francisco | Seattle | Denver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 2026-06-25 | 14 | 17 | 3 |
| 2026-06-26 | 13 | 23 | — |
| 2026-06-27 | 14 | 22 | 9 |
| 2026-06-28 | 14 | 17 | 3 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Denver −13pp 16→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Seattle +6pp 17→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · Denver +6pp 3→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-28 · Denver −6pp 9→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-28 · Seattle −5pp 22→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates an 8% chance that Seattle's minimum temperature will fall below 50 degrees Fahrenheit on July 4, 2026. Early July is typically warm in the Pacific Northwest, making sub-50 degree overnight lows uncommon for that date, which explains the low probability. The main drivers are seasonal weather patterns and any anomalous cold fronts that might move through the region in early July. The resolution occurs on July 4, 2026, when the actual minimum temperature will be recorded and verified against National Weather Service data. Comparable contracts for other major U.S. cities show similarly low probabilities (3-10%), suggesting market participants view a sub-50 degree minimum as unlikely across most population centers during early summer.

### Key factors

- Historical Seattle July temperatures show minimum readings typically between 50-55°F, making sub-50 outcomes rare but not unprecedented
- Current probability of 8% is notably higher than Dallas, NYC, Denver, and DC (3-5%), suggesting Seattle's marine climate creates marginally greater cool-night risk
- The specific threshold of 50°F is a meaningful weather boundary; accuracy depends on precise overnight low readings from official weather stations
- Resolution depends on verified National Weather Service data recorded on July 4, 2026, eliminating ambiguity once the date arrives
- Market pricing reflects typical climatology; significant movement would require credible weather forecasts indicating an unusual cold event 9+ days in advance

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/holidaytmin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=holidaytmin

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.