# Will more than 650,000 Honey Deuces be sold at the US Open 2026

> Above 750,000 units leads at 95%, runner-up 95% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 38 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/honeydeuce
Updated: 2026-09-21T12:21:14.661Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 750,000 units at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 700,000 units at 95%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $459

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 750,000 units | 95¢ | +1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-more-than-750000-honey-deuces-be-sold-at-the-kalshi-kxhoneydeuce-01jan27-a750000 |
| Above 700,000 units | 95¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-more-than-700000-honey-deuces-be-sold-at-the-kalshi-kxhoneydeuce-01jan27-a700000 |
| Above 800,000 units | 91¢ | +23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-more-than-800000-honey-deuces-be-sold-at-the-kalshi-kxhoneydeuce-01jan27-a800000 |
| Above 850,000 units | 77¢ | +7pp | $142 | kalshi | /markets/will-more-than-850000-honey-deuces-be-sold-at-the-kalshi-kxhoneydeuce-01jan27-a850000 |
| Above 650,000 units | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-more-than-650000-honey-deuces-be-sold-at-the-kalshi-kxhoneydeuce-01jan27-a650000 |
| Above 900,000 units | 6¢ | −1pp | $311 | kalshi | /markets/will-more-than-900000-honey-deuces-be-sold-at-the-kalshi-kxhoneydeuce-01jan27-a900000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 750,000 units | Above 700,000 units | Above 800,000 units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | 67 | 85 | 45 |
| 2026-09-06 | — | — | 76 |
| 2026-09-07 | 80 | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 86 | 97 | 75 |
| 2026-09-12 | 94 | 72 | 80 |
| 2026-09-18 | 93 | 95 | 68 |
| 2026-09-19 | 94 | — | 91 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Above 650,000 units −69pp 99→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Above 800,000 units +23pp 68→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 700,000 units +22pp 72→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 900,000 units −19pp 25→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 800,000 units −19pp 80→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market is pricing a 95% probability that Honey Deuces—a beverage sold at the US Open tennis tournament—will exceed 650,000 units sold in 2026. This reflects strong confidence in baseline demand, likely driven by the drink's established presence at the tournament and typical attendance levels. The probability drops significantly at higher thresholds: 77% for 750,000 units and 29% for 900,000 units, suggesting traders see limited upside beyond normal sales patterns. Resolution depends on the actual sales figures reported after the tournament concludes in September 2026, making final ticket sales, tournament weather, and vendor performance key determinants of outcome.

### Key factors

- US Open 2026 total attendance figures relative to historical averages will directly affect baseline concession sales volumes
- Honey Deuce pricing and per-capita purchasing rates compared to 2024-2025 tournament data will determine whether sales reach stated thresholds
- Tournament duration and scheduling (weather delays, extended matches) could increase or decrease total venue hours and sales opportunities
- Competitive beverage options and vendor inventory allocation may shift consumer preferences toward or away from Honey Deuces
- Official sales reporting from USTA or venue operators must be disclosed to definitively resolve the contract by the stated threshold amounts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/honeydeuce
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=honeydeuce

## License

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