# Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report above 4.8 million gold subs in Q1 2026

> Above 27.8 million leads at 97%, runner-up 94% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hood
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.273Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-28

## Headline

- Leader: Above 27.8 million at 97%
- Runner-up: above 4.35 million at 94%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $905

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 27.8 million | 97¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-278-millio-kalshi-kxhood-26julfunded-p27800000.0 |
| above 4.35 million | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-435-millio-kalshi-kxhood-26julgoldsubs-p4350000.0 |
| Above 27.9 million | 93¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-279-millio-kalshi-kxhood-26julfunded-p27900000.0 |
| above 4.4 million | 87¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-44-million-kalshi-kxhood-26julgoldsubs-p4400000.0 |
| above 4.45 million | 79¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-445-millio-kalshi-kxhood-26julgoldsubs-p4450000.0 |
| Above 28 million | 74¢ | −1pp | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-28-million-kalshi-kxhood-26julfunded-p28000000.0 |
| above 4.5 million | 67¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-45-million-kalshi-kxhood-26julgoldsubs-p4500000.0 |
| above 4.55 million | 51¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-455-millio-kalshi-kxhood-26julgoldsubs-p4550000.0 |
| above 4.6 million | 35¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-46-million-kalshi-kxhood-26julgoldsubs-p4600000.0 |
| Above 28.1 million | 32¢ | +1pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-281-millio-kalshi-kxhood-26julfunded-28100000 |
| above 4.65 million | 23¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-465-millio-kalshi-kxhood-26julgoldsubs-p4650000.0 |
| Above 28.2 million | 8¢ | −5pp | $417 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-282-millio-kalshi-kxhood-26julfunded-28200000 |
| Above 28.3 million | 6¢ | +2pp | $305 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-283-millio-kalshi-kxhood-26julfunded-28300000 |
| Above 28.4 million | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robinhood-markets-inc-report-above-284-millio-kalshi-kxhood-26julfunded-28400000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 27.8 million | above 4.35 million | Above 27.9 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 39 | 39 | 21 |
| 2026-06-06 | 55 | 95 | 17 |
| 2026-06-11 | 88 | — | 77 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | — | 88 |
| 2026-06-18 | 96 | — | — |
| 2026-06-19 | — | — | 97 |
| 2026-06-23 | 95 | — | 93 |
| 2026-06-25 | 97 | — | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Above 28.1 million −13pp 49→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above 28.2 million −6pp 20→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Above 28 million −6pp 80→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Above 28.2 million −5pp 11→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above 28.1 million −5pp 54→49¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction estimates a 41% chance that Robinhood will report more than 4.8 million gold subscribers in Q1 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty around Robinhood's ability to grow its premium subscription base, which depends on customer acquisition and retention rates. Key drivers include the competitive landscape for retail investing platforms and broader trends in retail investor engagement. The resolution will occur when Robinhood releases its Q1 2026 earnings report, typically in late April or early May 2026, providing actual subscriber figures. Movement in this probability would depend on Robinhood's quarterly user growth metrics, company guidance, and market conditions affecting retail trading participation.

### Key factors

- Robinhood's historical gold subscriber growth rate and quarterly additions
- Q1 2026 performance relative to competitor offerings and market conditions for retail investment platforms
- Company guidance or forward-looking statements about subscriber targets during earnings calls
- Changes in retail investor participation and account opening trends in early 2026
- Pricing, feature updates, or marketing initiatives Robinhood implements to drive premium subscriptions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/hood
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=hood

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.